E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

• Markups, Pass-Through, and Firm Heterogeneity with Sequentially Mixed Search

  Staff Working Paper 2025-7 Alex Chernoff, Allen Head, Beverly Lapham

  Market power and pass-through of cost and demand shocks are studied in a market with free entry of heterogeneous firms and consumer mixed search. Equilibrium prices and markups are driven by variation in the elasticity of demand across firms. Improved conditions for buyers can either raise or lower market power.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Service sector JEL Code(s): D, D2, D21, D4, D43, E, E3, E31, L, L1, L11

• Effects of macroprudential policy announcements on perceptions of systemic risks

  Staff Analytical Note 2025-4 Thibaut Duprey, Victoria Fernandes, Kerem Tuzcuoglu, Ruhani Walia

  We introduce a history of macroprudential policy (MPP) events in Canada since the 1980s. We document the short-run effects of MPP announcements on market-based measures of systemic risk and find that MPPs can influence the market’s perception of large banks’ resilience.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, G, G2, G21, G28, G3, G32

• Exploring the drivers of the real term premium in Canada

  Staff Analytical Note 2025-3 Zabi Tarshi, Gitanjali Kumar

  Changes in the term premium can reflect uncertainty about inflation, growth and monetary policy. Understanding the key factors that influence the term premium is important when central banks make decisions about monetary policy. In this paper, we derive the real term premium from the nominal term premium in Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Interest rates, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): C, C5, C58, E, E4, E43, E47, G, G1, G12

• Monetary policy, interest rates and the Canadian dollar

  Staff Analytical Note 2025-2 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Ingomar Krohn, James Kyeong, Rishi Vala, Konrad Zmitrowicz

  Changes in domestic interest rates affect the value of the Canadian dollar less than changes in the risk premium do. These variations often occur when a broad shift in risk sentiment occurs in global markets. Ultimately, the value of the currency reflects long-term, slow-moving features of the economies.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates, Interest rates, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12

• High-Cost Consumer Credit: Desperation, Temptation and Default

  Staff Working Paper 2025-6 Joaquín Saldain

  I study the welfare consequences of regulations on high-cost consumer credit in the United States and find that borrowing limits have distributional impacts on households with self-control issues.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E2, E7, E71, G, G5, G51

• Anchored Inflation Expectations: What Recent Data Reveal

  Staff Working Paper 2025-5 Olena Kostyshyna, Isabelle Salle, Hung Truong

  We analyze micro-level data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations through the lens of a heterogeneous-expectations model to study how inflation expectations form over the business cycle. We provide new insights into how households form expectations, documenting that forecasting behaviours, attention and noise in beliefs vary across socio-demographic groups and correlate with views about monetary policy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): D, D8, D84, E, E3, E31, E7, E70

• Quantile VARs and Macroeconomic Risk Forecasting

  Staff Working Paper 2025-4 Stéphane Surprenant

  This paper provides an extensive evaluation of the performance of quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) to forecast macroeconomic risk. Generally, QVAR outperforms standard benchmark models. Moreover, QVAR and QVAR augmented with factors perform equally well. Both are adequate for modeling macroeconomic risks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C55, E, E3, E37

• Differentiable, Filter Free Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models Using Mixture Density Networks

  Staff Working Paper 2025-3 Chris Naubert

  I develop a method for Bayesian estimation of globally solved, non-linear macroeconomic models. The method uses a mixture density network to approximate the initial state distribution. The mixture density network results in more reliable posterior inference compared with the case when the initial states are set to their steady-state values.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, C63, E, E3, E37, E4, E47

• Privacy-Enhancing Technologies for CBDC Solutions

  Staff Discussion Paper 2025-1 Rakesh Arora, Han Du, Raza Ali Kazmi, Duc-Phong Le

  Privacy-enhancing technologies (PETs) could offer solutions to safeguard end-user privacy and meet rigorous data protection standards for central bank digital currencies. We consider how PETs can transform privacy design in financial systems and the implications of their broader adoption.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, O, O3, O31

• Interaction of Macroprudential and Monetary Policies: Practice Ahead of Theory

  Staff Discussion Paper 2024-18 Thibaut Duprey, Yaz Terajima, Jing Yang

  We draw on the Canadian experience to examine how monetary and macroprudential policies interact and possibly complement each other in achieving their respective price and financial stability objectives.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial stability, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E3, E37, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61, G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G28