D - Microeconomics

• Total factor productivity growth projection for Canada: A sectoral approach

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-12 Dany Brouillette, Tessa Devakos, Raven Wheesk

  We propose a tool that decomposes TFP growth into sectoral contributions. The analysis incorporates three structural factors—digitalization, aging and climate change policies—and measures their contributions. Overall, we expect that aggregate TFP growth will slow down in the 2020s below both its historical average and the average from the 2010s.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Climate change, Digitalization, Labour markets, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, J, J1, J11, O, O3, O33, Q, Q5, Q54

• Survey of Indigenous Firms: A Snapshot of Wages, Prices and Financing in the Indigenous Business Sector in Canada

  Staff Discussion Paper 2024-4 Calista Cheung, James Fudurich, Janki Shah, Farrukh Suvankulov

  What sources of financing do Indigenous-owned businesses in Canada use, and what are their expectations about prices, wages and inflation? We find Indigenous-owned firms are significantly less reliant on financial institutions as sources of financing compared with non-Indigenous firms. We also find Indigenous-owned firms have higher inflation expectations and weaker wage-growth expectations.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Firm dynamics JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D0, G, G3, G38, J, J1, J15

• Digital Payments in Firm Networks: Theory of Adoption and Quantum Algorithm

  Staff Working Paper 2024-17 Sofia Priazhkina, Samuel Palmer, Pablo Martín-Ramiro, Román Orús, Samuel Mugel, Vladimir Skavysh

  We build a network formation game of firms with trade flows to study the adoption and usage of a new digital currency as an alternative to correspondent banking.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech, Digitalization, Economic models, Financial institutions, Payment clearing and settlement systems, Sectoral balance sheet JEL Code(s): C, C6, C7, C71, D, D4, D8, D85, G, L, L2, L22

• Finding a Needle in a Haystack: A Machine Learning Framework for Anomaly Detection in Payment Systems

  Staff Working Paper 2024-15 Ajit Desai, Anneke Kosse, Jacob Sharples

  Our layered machine learning framework can enhance real-time transaction monitoring in high-value payment systems, which are a central piece of a country’s financial infrastructure. When tested on data from Canadian payment systems, it demonstrated potential for accurately identifying anomalous transactions. This framework could help improve cyber and operational resilience of payment systems.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Financial institutions, Financial services, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C4, C45, C5, C55, D, D8, D83, E, E4, E42

• Liquidity risks at Canadian life insurance companies

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-7 Patrick Aldridge, Stephane Gignac, Rishi Vala, Adrian Walton

  We examine how life insurers manage liquidity risks created by their business model. We find that Canadian life insurers did not face significant liquidity draws and continued their usual investment behaviour during the COVID-19 crisis and as interest rates increased in 2022.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4, D47, D5, D53, G, G1, G12, G14, G2, G23

• Pricing behaviour and inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic: Insights from consumer prices microdata

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-6 Olga Bilyk, Mikael Khan, Olena Kostyshyna

  Using the microdata underlying the Canadian consumer price index, we study how often and by how much firms changed their prices during the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that the surge in inflation was mainly associated with retailers raising prices much more often than before. We also find that more recently, corporate price-setting behaviour appears to be approaching pre-pandemic norms.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Inflation and prices, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, E, E3, E31, L, L1, L11

• Measuring household financial stress in Canada using consumer surveys

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-5 Nicolas Bédard, Patrick Sabourin

  We use data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations to understand how households are coping with high inflation and high interest rates. We build a subjective measure of financial stress and find that the level of stress is at a historical high but remains manageable for most households.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Financial stability, Monetary policy transmission, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, G, G5, H, H3

• COVID-19 Hasn’t Killed Merchant Acceptance of Cash: Results from the 2023 Merchant Acceptance Survey

  Staff Discussion Paper 2024-2 Angelika Welte, Katrina Talavera, Liang Wang, Joy Wu

  The Bank of Canada’s Merchant Acceptance Survey finds that 96% of small and medium-sized businesses in Canada accepted cash in 2023. Acceptance of debit and credit cards has increased to 89%, and acceptance of digital payments has also increased. However, Canada is far from being a cashless society.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C8, D, D2, D22, E, E4, L, L2

• Regulation, Emissions and Productivity: Evidence from China’s Eleventh Five-Year Plan

  Staff Working Paper 2024-7 Brantly Callaway, Tong Li, Joel Rodrigue, Yuya Sasaki, Yong Tan

  We study the degree to which China’s 11th Five-Year Plan softens trade-offs between emissions and output. Our model suggests efficient regulation could have further increased aggregate productivity by 3.5% and output by 4.7% without any increase in aggregate emissions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Climate change, Productivity JEL Code(s): C, C2, C21, D, D2, D24, Q, Q5, Q53

• What has been putting upward pressure on CORRA?

  Staff Analytical Note 2024-4 Boran Plong, Neil Maru

  From the autumn of 2023 into early 2024, the Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average (CORRA), a measure of the cost of overnight general collateral Canadian dollar repos, was consistently well above the Bank’s target for the overnight rate. We find that, among several factors, long bond positions that require repo financing are the main driver of the recent upward pressure on CORRA.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial markets, Interest rates, Lender of last resort, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): D, D4, D5, D53, E, E4, E43, E44, E5, E52, G, G1, G12