D - Microeconomics

• How Long Does It Take You to Pay? A Duration Study of Canadian Retail Transaction Payment Times

  Staff Working Paper 2018-46 Geneviève Vallée

  Using an exclusive data set of payment times for retail transactions made in Canada, I show that cash is the most time-efficient method of payment (MOP) when compared with payments by debit and credit cards. I model payment efficiency using Cox proportional hazard models, accounting for consumer choice of MOP.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Econometric and statistical methods, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C2, C25, C3, C36, C4, C41, D, D2, D23, E, E4, E41, E42

• The Impact of Government Debt Supply on Bond Market Liquidity: An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Market

  Staff Working Paper 2018-35 Jeffrey Gao, Jianjian Jin, Jacob Thompson

  This paper finds that Government of Canada benchmark bonds tend to be more illiquid over the subsequent month when there is a large increase in government debt supply. The result is both statistically and economically significant, stronger for the long-term than the short-term sector, and is robust when other macro factors are controlled for.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Debt management, Financial markets JEL Code(s): D, D5, D53, G, G1, G12, G18, G2, G3, G32

• Does Outward Foreign Investment Matter for Canadian Productivity? Evidence from Greenfield Investments

  Staff Working Paper 2018-31 Naveen Rai, Lena Suchanek, Maria Bernier

  This paper seeks to understand how outward foreign direct investment (FDI) affects the productivity of Canadian firms. We estimate the impact of outward greenfield investment on measures of firm-level productivity using FDI data from roughly 2,000 Canadian firms and more than 4,000 outward FDI projects over the 2003–14 period.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, F, F2, F21, F23

• A Look Inside the Box: Combining Aggregate and Marginal Distributions to Identify Joint Distributions

  Staff Working Paper 2018-29 Marie-Hélène Felt

  This paper proposes a method for estimating the joint distribution of two or more variables when only their marginal distributions and the distribution of their aggregates are observed. Nonparametric identification is achieved by modelling dependence using a latent common-factor structure.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, D, D1, D14, E, E4, E41

• Readability and the Bank of Canada

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-20 Alexandre Deslongchamps

  In this note, I assess the readability of Bank of Canada publications using a formula commonly used for this type of evaluation. I find that Bank publications are more difficult to read than the media articles and other content our target audiences likely consume. This suggests that more simple writing can help the Bank better meet its communication objectives.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Credibility, Monetary policy communications JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83

• The Scale and Scope of Online Retail

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-19 Alex Chernoff

  This paper studies the growth of online retail over the period 1999–2012, using confidential firm-product-level data for Canada. The revenue of online retailers is decomposed into the contributions of product scope (the number of product categories) and product scale (average revenue per product category).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Firm dynamics, International topics JEL Code(s): D, D2, D22, L, L1, L11, L8, L81

• Interest Rate and Renewal Risk for Mortgages

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-18 Olga Bilyk, Cameron MacDonald, Brian Peterson

  In this note, we explore two types of risk faced by holders of mortgages and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) in the context of rising interest rates: interest rate risk and renewal risk.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial institutions, Interest rates, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, E, E4, E5, G, G2, G21, G28

• Firm Dynamics and Multifactor Productivity: An Empirical Exploration

  Staff Working Paper 2018-15 Pierre St-Amant, David Tessier

  There are indications that business dynamism has declined in advanced economies. In particular, firm entry and exit rates have fallen, suggesting that the creative destruction process has lost some of its vitality. Meanwhile, productivity growth has slowed. Some believe that lower entry and exit rates partly explain the weaker productivity growth.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, M, M1, M13, O, O4, O47

• Did U.S. Consumers Respond to the 2014–2015 Oil Price Shock? Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey

  Staff Working Paper 2018-13 Patrick Alexander, Louis Poirier

  The impact of oil price shocks on the U.S. economy is a topic of considerable debate. In this paper, we examine the response of U.S. consumers to the 2014–2015 negative oil price shock using representative survey data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, E, E2, E21, Q, Q4, Q43

• Blockchain Revolution Without the Blockchain

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-5 Hanna Halaburda

  The technology behind blockchain has attracted a lot of attention. However, this technology is for the most part not well understood. There is no consensus on what benefits it may bring or on how it may fail.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Recent economic and financial developments, Service sector JEL Code(s): D, D8, G, G2, O, O3, O33