D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
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Guarding Against Large Policy Errors under Model Uncertainty
How can policy-makers avoid large policy errors when they are uncertain about the true model of the economy? -
A Structural Error-Correction Model of Best Prices and Depths in the Foreign Exchange Limit Order Market
Traders using the electronic limit order book in the foreign exchange market can watch the posted price and depth of the best quotes change over the day. -
A Search Model of Venture Capital, Entrepreneurship, and Unemployment
The authors develop a search model of venture capital in which the number of successful matches of entrepreneurs and venture capitalists (VCs) at any moment in time is a function of the number of entrepreneurs searching for funds, the number of VCs searching for entrepreneurs, and the number of vacancies posted by each VC. -
Pocket Banks and Out-of-Pocket Losses: Links between Corruption and Contagion
The author describes a model with a corrupt banking system, in which bankers knowingly lend at market interest rates to back projects riskier than the market rate indicates. -
Lines of Credit and Consumption Smoothing: The Choice between Credit Cards and Home Equity Lines of Credit
The author models the choice between credit cards and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) within a framework where consumers hold lines of credit as instruments of consumption smoothing across state and time. -
Risk Perceptions and Attitudes
Changes in risk perception have been used in various contexts to explain shorter-term developments in financial markets, as part of a mechanism that amplifies fluctuations in financial markets, as well as in accounts of "irrational exuberance." -
Determinants of Borrowing Limits on Credit Cards
The difference between actual borrowings and borrowing limits alone generates information asymmetry in the credit card market. -
Monetary Policy under Model and Data-Parameter Uncertainty
Policy-makers in the United States over the past 15 to 20 years seem to have been cautious in setting policy: empirical estimates of monetary policy rules such as Taylor's (1993) rule are much less aggressive than those derived from optimizing models. -
Are Distorted Beliefs Too Good to be True?
In a recent attempt to account for the equity-premium puzzle within a representative-agent model, Cecchetti, Lam, and Mark (2000) relax the assumption of rational expectations and in its place use the assumption of distorted beliefs. The author shows that the explanatory power of the distorted beliefs model is due to an inconsistency in the model and that an attempt to remove this inconsistency removes the model's explanatory power.