D83 - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief

• The Determinants of Consumers’ Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the US and Canada

  Staff Working Paper 2020-52 Charles Bellemare, Rolande Kpekou Tossou, Kevin Moran

  We compare the determinants of consumer inflation expectations in the US and Canada by analyzing two current surveys. We find that Canadian consumers rely more on professional forecasts and the history of actual inflation when forming their expectations, while US consumers rely more on their own lagged expectations.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, D, D8, D83, D84, E, E3, E31

• Forward Guidance and Expectation Formation: A Narrative Approach

  Staff Working Paper 2020-40 Christopher S. Sutherland

  How exactly does forward guidance influence interest rate expectations?

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Monetary policy, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, D84, E, E3, E37, E5, E52, E58

• Ten Isn’t Large! Group Size and Coordination in a Large-Scale Experiment

  Staff Working Paper 2020-30 Jasmina Arifovic, Cars Hommes, Anita Kopányi-Peuker, Isabelle Salle

  Economic activities typically involve coordination among a large number of agents. These agents have to anticipate what other agents think before making their own decisions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C9, C92, D, D8, D83, D9, D90, G, G2, G20

• Trading for Bailouts

  Staff Working Paper 2020-23 Toni Ahnert, Caio Machado, Ana Elisa Pereira

  In times of high uncertainty, governments often implement interventions such as bailouts to financial institutions. To use public resources efficiently and to avoid major spillovers to the rest of the economy, policy-makers try to identify which institutions should receive assistance.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Lender of last resort JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, G, G1, G12, G14, G18

• Optimal Taxation in Asset Markets with Adverse Selection

  Staff Working Paper 2020-11 Mohammad Davoodalhosseini

  What is the optimal tax schedule in over-the-counter markets, e.g., those for corporate bonds? I find that an optimal tax schedule is often non-monotonic. For example, trading of some high-price assets should be subsidized, and trading of some low-price assets should be taxed.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, D83, E, E2, E24, G, G1, G10, J, J3, J31, J6, J64

• The Effect of Oil Price Shocks on Asset Markets: Evidence from Oil Inventory News

  Staff Working Paper 2020-8 Ron Alquist, Reinhard Ellwanger, Jianjian Jin

  We quantify the reaction of U.S. equity, bond futures, and exchange rate returns to oil price shocks driven by oil inventory news.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E4, E44, G, G1, G14, G15, Q, Q4, Q41, Q43

• Identifying Consumer-Welfare Changes when Online Search Platforms Change Their List of Search Results

  Staff Working Paper 2020-5 Ryan Martin

  Online shopping is often guided by search platforms. Consumers type keywords into query boxes, and search platforms deliver a list of products. Consumers' attention is limited, and exhaustive searches are often impractical.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, D, D1, D11, D12, D6, D8, D83, L, L4, L40

• Online Privacy and Information Disclosure by Consumers

  Staff Working Paper 2019-22 Shota Ichihashi

  A consumer discloses information to a multi-product seller, which learns about the consumer’s preferences, sets prices, and makes product recommendations. While the consumer benefits from accurate product recommendations, the seller may use the information to price discriminate.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, D83

• Limiting Sender’s Information in Bayesian Persuasion

  Staff Working Paper 2019-10 Shota Ichihashi

  This paper studies how the outcome of Bayesian persuasion depends on a sender’s information. I study a game in which, prior to the sender’s information disclosure, the designer can restrict the most informative signal that the sender can generate.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, D83

• 2017 Methods-of-Payment Survey Report

  Staff Discussion Paper 2018-17 Christopher Henry, Kim Huynh, Angelika Welte

  Cash use is declining while contactless and mobile payments are on the rise.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Financial services JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E4, E41