D81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

• Pricing Indefinitely Lived Assets: Experimental Evidence

  Staff Working Paper 2023-25 John Duffy, Janet Hua Jiang, Huan Xie

  We study the trading of an asset with bankruptcy risk. The traded price of the asset is, on average, 40% of the expected total dividend payments. We investigate which economic models can explain the low traded price.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C9, C91, C92, D, D8, D81, G, G1, G12

• Cyber Risk and Security Investment

  Staff Working Paper 2022-32 Toni Ahnert, Michael Brolley, David Cimon, Ryan Riordan

  We develop a principal-agent model of cyber-attacking with fee-paying clients who delegate security decisions to financial platforms. We derive testable implications about clients’ vulnerability to cyber attacks and about the fees charged.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial services, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): D, D7, D78, D8, D81, G, G1, G18, G2, G21, G23

• The COVID-19 Consumption Game-Changer: Evidence from a Large-Scale Multi-Country Survey

  Staff Working Paper 2021-57 Alexander Hodbod, Cars Hommes, Stefanie J. Huber, Isabelle Salle

  A multi-country consumer survey investigates why and how much households decreased their consumption in five key sectors after pandemic-related restrictions were lifted in Europe in July 2020. Beyond infection risk and precautionary saving motives, households also reported not missing some consumption items, which may indicate preference shifts and structural changes in the post-COVID-19 economy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Firm dynamics, Fiscal policy, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, D8, D81, D84, E, E2, E21, E6, E60, E7, E71

• Stablecoin Assessment Framework

  Staff Discussion Paper 2021-6 Alejandro García, Bena Lands, Dennis Yanchus

  We offer relevant authorities a three-step assessment framework they can use to understand, identify and quantify the risks associated with stablecoin and other cryptocurrency arrangements.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): D, D7, D78, D8, D81, G, G0, G01, G1, G18, O, O3, O38

• Uncertain Costs and Vertical Differentiation in an Insurance Duopoly

  Staff Working Paper 2014-14 Radoslav Raykov

  Classical oligopoly models predict that firms differentiate vertically as a way of softening price competition, but some metrics suggest very little quality differentiation in the U.S. auto insurance market.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4, D43, D8, D81, G, G2, G22, L, L2, L22

• The Safety of Government Debt

  Staff Working Paper 2013-34 Kartik Anand, Prasanna Gai

  We examine the safety of government bonds in the presence of Knightian uncertainty amongst financial market participants. In our model, the information insensitivity of government bonds is driven by strategic complementarities across counterparties and the structure of trading relationships.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial stability, International financial markets JEL Code(s): D, D8, D81, E, E4, E44, F, F0, F02, F4, F41, G, G1, G15

• Price Level versus Inflation Targeting under Model Uncertainty

  Staff Working Paper 2008-15 Gino Cateau

  The purpose of this paper is to make a quantitative contribution to the inflation versus price level targeting debate. It considers a policy-maker that can set policy either through an inflation targeting rule or a price level targeting rule to minimize a quadratic loss function using the actual projection model of the Bank of Canada (ToTEM).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): D, D8, D81, E, E5, E58

• Efficient Hedging and Pricing of Equity-Linked Life Insurance Contracts on Several Risky Assets

  Staff Working Paper 2006-43 Alexander Melnikov, Yuliya Romanyuk

  The authors use the efficient hedging methodology for optimal pricing and hedging of equity-linked life insurance contracts whose payoff depends on the performance of several risky assets.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): D, D8, D81, G, G1, G10, G12

• Guarding Against Large Policy Errors under Model Uncertainty

  Staff Working Paper 2006-13 Gino Cateau

  How can policy-makers avoid large policy errors when they are uncertain about the true model of the economy?

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): D, D8, D81, E, E5, E58

• Lines of Credit and Consumption Smoothing: The Choice between Credit Cards and Home Equity Lines of Credit

  Staff Working Paper 2005-18 Shubhasis Dey

  The author models the choice between credit cards and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) within a framework where consumers hold lines of credit as instruments of consumption smoothing across state and time.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates JEL Code(s): D, D1, D8, D81