C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods

• Are Canadian Banks Efficient? A Canada–U.S. Comparison

  Staff Working Paper 2006-33 Jason Allen, Walter Engert, Ying Liu

  The authors compare the efficiency of Canada's largest banks with U.S. commercial banks over the past 20 years. Efficiency is measured in three ways.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, D, D2, D24, G, G2, G21

• Assessing and Valuing the Non-Linear Structure of Hedge Fund Returns

  Staff Working Paper 2006-31 Antonio Diez de los Rios, René Garcia

  Several studies have put forward the non-linear structure and option-like features of returns associated with hedge fund strategies.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions JEL Code(s): C, C1, C5, G, G1

• Using Monthly Indicators to Predict Quarterly GDP

  Staff Working Paper 2006-26 Yi Zheng, James Rossiter

  The authors build a model for predicting current-quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) growth using anywhere from zero to three months of indicators from that quarter.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, C53

• Linear and Threshold Forecasts of Output and Inflation with Stock and Housing Prices

  Staff Working Paper 2006-25 Greg Tkacz, Carolyn A. Wilkins

  The authors examine whether simple measures of Canadian equity and housing price misalignments contain leading information about output growth and inflation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E4

• Launching the NEUQ: The New European Union Quarterly Model, A Small Model of the Euro Area and U.K. Economies

  Staff Working Paper 2006-22 Anna Piretti, Charles St-Arnaud

  The authors develop a projection model of the euro area and the United Kingdom. The model consists of two country blocks, endogenous to each other via the foreign demand channel.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E1, E17, E3, E37

• Risk-Cost Frontier and Collateral Valuation in Securities Settlement Systems for Extreme Market Events

  Staff Working Paper 2006-17 Alejandro García, Ramazan Gençay

  The authors examine how the use of extreme value theory yields collateral requirements that are robust to extreme fluctuations in the market price of the asset used as collateral.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C1, G, G0, G1

• Forecasting Commodity Prices: GARCH, Jumps, and Mean Reversion

  Staff Working Paper 2006-14 Jean-Thomas Bernard, Lynda Khalaf, Maral Kichian, Sebastien McMahon

  Fluctuations in the prices of various natural resource products are of concern in both policy and business circles; hence, it is important to develop accurate price forecasts.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C52, C53, E, E3, E37

• The Federal Reserve's Dual Mandate: A Time-Varying Monetary Policy Priority Index for the United States

  Staff Working Paper 2006-11 René Lalonde, Nicolas Parent

  In the United States, the Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of promoting stable inflation and maximum employment. Since the Fed directly controls only one instrument - the federal funds rate - the authors argue that the Fed's priorities continuously alternate between inflation and economic activity.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, C52, E, E5, E52

• A Structural Error-Correction Model of Best Prices and Depths in the Foreign Exchange Limit Order Market

  Staff Working Paper 2006-8 Ingrid Lo, Stephen Sapp

  Traders using the electronic limit order book in the foreign exchange market can watch the posted price and depth of the best quotes change over the day.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Exchange rates, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C3, D, D8, F, F3, F31

• Are Currency Crises Low-State Equilibria? An Empirical, Three-Interest-Rate Model

  Staff Working Paper 2006-5 Christopher Cornell, Raphael Solomon

  Suppose that the dynamics of the macroeconomy were given by (partly) random fluctuations between two equilibria: "good" and "bad."

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): C, C6, C62, E, E5, E59, F, F4, F41