C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods

• Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of a Spread Compression at the Zero Lower Bound

  Staff Working Paper 2012-21 Christiane Baumeister, Luca Benati

  We explore the macroeconomic effects of a compression in the long-term bond yield spread within the context of the Great Recession of 2007-2009 via a time-varying parameter structural VAR model.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C3, C32, E, E5, E52, E58

• Estimating the Demand for Settlement Balances in the Canadian Large Value Transfer System

  Staff Working Paper 2012-15 Nellie Zhang

  This paper applies a static model of an interest rate corridor to the Canadian data, and estimates the aggregate demand for central-bank settlement balances in the Large Value Transfer System (LVTS).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy implementation, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C3, C36, E, E4, E40, E5, E50, G, G0, G01

• The Impact of Retail Payment Innovations on Cash Usage

  Staff Working Paper 2012-14 Ben Fung, Kim Huynh, Leonard Sabetti

  Many predict that innovations in retail payment may render cash obsolete. We investigate this possibility in the context of recent payment innovations such as contactless-credit and stored-value cards.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial services, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C3, C35, C8, C83, E, E4, E41

• A Framework to Assess Vulnerabilities Arising from Household Indebtedness Using Microdata

  Staff Discussion Paper 2012-3 Ramdane Djoudad

  Rising levels of household indebtedness have created concerns about the vulnerabilities of households to adverse economic shocks and the impact on financial stability. To assess these risks, the author presents a formal stress-testing framework that uses microdata to simulate how various economic shocks affect the distribution of the debt-service ratio (DSR) for the household sector.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, C3, C31, D, D1, D14, E, E5, E51

• Short-Term Forecasting of the Japanese Economy Using Factor Models

  Staff Working Paper 2012-7 Claudia Godbout, Marco J. Lombardi

  While the usefulness of factor models has been acknowledged over recent years, little attention has been devoted to the forecasting power of these models for the Japanese economy. In this paper, we aim at assessing the relative performance of factor models over different samples, including the recent financial crisis.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C50, C53, E, E3, E37, E4, E47

• Real-Time Analysis of Oil Price Risks Using Forecast Scenarios

  Staff Working Paper 2012-1 Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian

  Recently, there has been increased interest in real-time forecasts of the real price of crude oil. Standard oil price forecasts based on reduced-form regressions or based on oil futures prices do not allow consumers of forecasts to explore how much the forecast would change relative to the baseline forecast under alternative scenarios about future oil demand and oil supply conditions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, Q, Q4, Q43

• Security Transaction Taxes and Market Quality

  Staff Working Paper 2011-26 Anna Pomeranets, Daniel G. Weaver

  We examine nine changes in the New York State Security Transaction Taxes (STT) between 1932 and 1981. We find that imposing or increasing an STT results in wider bidask spreads, lower volume, and increased price impact of trades.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): C, C4, C43, G, G1, G10, G12

• What Matters in Determining Capital Surcharges for Systemically Important Financial Institutions?

  Staff Discussion Paper 2011-9 Céline Gauthier, Toni Gravelle, Xuezhi Liu, Moez Souissi

  One way of internalizing the externalities that each individual bank imposes on the rest of the financial system is to impose capital surcharges on them in line with their systemic importance.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, C8, C81, E, E4, E44, G, G0, G01, G2, G21

• How Do You Pay? The Role of Incentives at the Point-of-Sale

  Staff Working Paper 2011-23 Carlos Arango, Kim Huynh, Leonard Sabetti

  This paper uses discrete-choice models to quantify the role of consumer socioeconomic characteristics, payment instrument attributes, and transaction features on the probability of using cash, debit card, or credit card at the point-of-sale.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial services JEL Code(s): C, C3, C35, C8, C83, E, E4, E41

• A Stochastic Volatility Model with Conditional Skewness

  Staff Working Paper 2011-20 Bruno Feunou, Roméo Tedongap

  We develop a discrete-time affine stochastic volatility model with time-varying conditional skewness (SVS). Importantly, we disentangle the dynamics of conditional volatility and conditional skewness in a coherent way.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C5, G, G1, G12