C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
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Quantifying Contagion Risk in Funding Markets: A Model-Based Stress-Testing Approach
We propose a tractable, model-based stress-testing framework where the solvency risks, funding liquidity risks and market risks of banks are intertwined. -
Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data
This paper introduces new weighting schemes for model averaging when one is interested in combining discrete forecasts from competing Markov-switching models. In particular, we extend two existing classes of combination schemes – Bayesian (static) model averaging and dynamic model averaging – so as to explicitly reflect the objective of forecasting a discrete outcome. -
Testing for the Diffusion Matrix in a Continuous-Time Markov Process Model with Applications to the Term Structure of Interest Rates
The author proposes a test for the parametric specification of each component in the diffusion matrix of a d-dimensional diffusion process. Overall, d (d-1)/2 test statistics are constructed for the off-diagonal components, while d test statistics are constructed for the main diagonal components. -
May 14, 2015
The Use of Cash in Canada
The Bank of Canada’s 2013 Methods-of-Payment Survey indicates that the share of cash in the overall number of retail transactions has continued to decrease, mainly because of increased use of contactless credit cards. The share of cash in the total value of retail transactions was virtually unchanged from 2009 to 2013. In particular, the value share of cash transactions above $50 increased. Automated banking machines (ABMs), still the major source of cash for Canadians, were used less often in 2013 than in 2009. Cash use in Canada is broadly similar to that in Australia and the United States. -
Variance Estimation for Survey-Weighted Data Using Bootstrap Resampling Methods: 2013 Methods-of-Payment Survey Questionnaire
Sampling units for the 2013 Methods-of-Payment Survey were selected through an approximate stratified random sampling design. To compensate for non-response and non-coverage, the observations are weighted through a raking procedure. -
2013 Methods-of-Payment Survey: Sample Calibration Analysis
Sample calibration is a procedure that utilizes sample and national-level demographic distribution information to weight survey participants. The objective of calibration is to weight the sample so that it is demographically representative of the target population. -
Demographics and the Demand for Currency
I use data from the Bank of Canada’s Bank Note Distribution System and exploit a natural experiment offered by the timing of Easter in the Gregorian calendar to analyze the effects of demographic change for currency demand. -
International Spillovers of Policy Uncertainty
Using the Baker et al. (2013) index of policy uncertainty for six developed countries, this paper estimates spillovers of policy uncertainty. We find that spillovers account for slightly more than one-fourth of the dynamics of policy uncertainty in these countries, with this share rising to one-half during the financial crisis. -
Persistent Leverage in Portfolio Sorts: An Artifact of Measurement Error?
Studies such as Lemmon, Roberts and Zender (2008) demonstrate how stable firms’ capital structures are over time, and raise the question of whether new theories of capital structure are needed to explain these phenomena.