C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
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Payment Habits During COVID-19: Evidence from High-Frequency Transaction Data
We examine how consumers have adjusted their payment habits during the COVID-19 pandemic. They seem to perform fewer transactions, spend more in each transaction, use less cash at the point of sale and withdraw cash from ATMs linked to their financial institution more often than from other ATMs. -
Household financial vulnerabilities and physical climate risks
Natural disasters occur more often than before, potentially exposing households to financial distress. We study the intersection between household financial vulnerabilities and severe weather events. -
Estimating Large-Dimensional Connectedness Tables: The Great Moderation Through the Lens of Sectoral Spillovers
Understanding the size of sectoral links is crucial to predicting the impact of a crisis on the whole economy. We show that statistical learning techniques substantially outperform traditional estimation techniques when measuring large networks of these links. -
Cash and COVID-19: The impact of the second wave in Canada
The COVID-19 pandemic significantly increased the demand for cash. Cash in circulation increased sharply from March through December 2020, particularly in the early months of this period. Although use of electronic methods of payment also increased significantly, cash use for payments remains high for low-value transactions and among certain demographic groups. -
Stressed but not Helpless: Strategic Behaviour of Banks Under Adverse Market Conditions
Our stress-testing tool considers banks under stress that can strategically manage their balance sheets. Using confidential Canadian supervisory data, we assess whether bank behaviour to maximize shareholder value can amplify a hypothetical stress scenario. -
Small and smaller: How the economic outlook of small firms relates to size
Firms with fewer than 100 workers employ about 65 percent of the total labour force in Canada. An online survey experiment was conducted with firms of this size in Canada in 2018–19. We compare the responses of small and micro firms to explore how their characteristics and economic outlooks relate to their size. -
Shaping the future: Policy shocks and the GDP growth distribution
Can central bank and government policies impact the risks around the outlook for GDP growth? We find that fiscal stimulus makes strong GDP growth more likely—even more so when monetary policy is constrained—rather than weak GDP growth less likely. Thus, fiscal stimulus should accelerate the recovery phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. -
Detecting exuberance in house prices across Canadian cities
We introduce a model to detect periods of extrapolative house price expectations across Canadian cities. The House Price Exuberance Indicator can be updated on a quarterly basis to support the Bank of Canada’s broader assessment of housing market imbalances. -
Evolving Temperature Dynamics in Canada: Preliminary Evidence Based on 60 Years of Data
Are summers getting hotter? Do daily temperatures change more than they used to? Using daily Canadian temperature data from 1960 to 2020 and modern econometric methods, we provide economists and policy-makers evidence on the important climate change issue of evolving temperatures.