C8 - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs

• Turning Words into Numbers: Measuring News Media Coverage of Shortages

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-8 Lin Chen, Stephanie Houle

  We develop high-frequency, news-based indicators using natural language processing methods to analyze news media texts. Our indicators track both supply (raw, intermediate and final goods) and labour shortages over time. They also provide weekly time-varying topic narratives about various types of shortages.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Econometric and statistical methods, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C5, C55, C8, C82, E, E3, E37

• Introducing the Bank of Canada’s Market Participants Survey

  Staff Analytical Note 2023-1 Annick Demers, Tamara Gomes, Stephane Gignac

  The Market Participants Survey (MPS) gathers financial market participants’ expectations for key macroeconomic and financial variables and for monetary policy. This staff analytical note describes the MPS’s objectives and main features, its process and design, and how Bank of Canada staff use the results.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial markets, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, E, E4, E44, E5, E52, E58, G, G1, G12, G14

• The 2021–22 Merchant Acceptance Survey Pilot Study

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-1 Angelika Welte, Joy Wu

  The rise in digital payment innovations has spurred a discussion about the future of cash at the point of sale. The Bank conducted the 2021–22 Merchant Acceptance Survey Pilot Study to study trends in merchant cash acceptance and monitor conditions for the potential issuance of a central bank digital currency.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C8, D, D2, D22, E, E4, L, L2

• How Do People View Price and Wage Inflation?

  Staff Working Paper 2022-34 Monica Jain, Olena Kostyshyna, Xu Zhang

  This paper examines household-level data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) to understand households’ expectations about price and wage inflation, how those expectations link to views about labour market conditions and the subsequent impact on households’ outlook for real spending growth.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy communications JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D8, D84, E, E2, E21, E24, E3, E31

• The Business Leaders’ Pulse—An Online Business Survey

  Staff Discussion Paper 2022-14 Tony Chernis, Chris D'Souza, Kevin MacLean, Tasha Reader, Joshua Slive, Farrukh Suvankulov

  This paper introduces the Business Leaders’ Pulse, a new online survey conducted each month. It is designed to provide timely and flexible input into the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy decision making by asking firms about their sales and employment growth expectations, the risks to their business outlook, and topical questions that address specific information needs of the Bank.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D2, D22, E, E3, E32

• Historical Data on Repurchase Agreements from the Canadian Depository for Securities

  Technical Report No. 121 Maxim Ralchenko, Adrian Walton

  We develop an algorithm that extracts information about sale and repurchase agreements (repos) from disaggregated settlement data in order to generate a new historical dataset for research.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C5, C55, C8, C81, G, G1, G10

• Assessing Climate-Related Financial Risk: Guide to Implementation of Methods

  Technical Report No. 120 Hossein Hosseini Jebeli, Craig Johnston, Craig Logan, Miguel Molico, Xiangjin Shen, Marie-Christine Tremblay

  A pilot project on climate transition scenarios by the Bank of Canada and the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions assessed climate-related credit and market risks. This report describes the project’s methodologies and provides guidance on implementing them.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Climate change, Credit and credit aggregates, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C8, C83, G, G1, G3, G32

• Business Closures and (Re)Openings in Real Time Using Google Places

  Staff Working Paper 2022-1 Thibaut Duprey, Daniel E. Rigobon, Philip Schnattinger, Artur Kotlicki, Soheil Baharian, T. R. Hurd

  The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need for policy-makers to closely monitor disruptions to the retail and food business sectors. We present a new method to measure business opening and closing rates using real-time data from Google Places, the dataset behind the Google Maps service.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Firm dynamics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C5, C55, C8, C81, D, D2, D22, E, E3, E32

• Small and smaller: How the economic outlook of small firms relates to size

  Staff Analytical Note 2021-14 Chris D'Souza, James Fudurich, Farrukh Suvankulov

  Firms with fewer than 100 workers employ about 65 percent of the total labour force in Canada. An online survey experiment was conducted with firms of this size in Canada in 2018–19. We compare the responses of small and micro firms to explore how their characteristics and economic outlooks relate to their size.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Firm dynamics JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D2, D22, E, E3, E32

• Qualitative Field Research in Monetary Policy Making

  Staff Discussion Paper 2021-1 Chris D'Souza, Jane Voll

  Central banks conduct research involving in-depth interviews with external parties—but little is known about how this information affects monetary policy. We address this gap by analyzing open-ended interviews with senior central bank economic and policy staff who work closely with policy decision-makers.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, E, E3, E37, E5, E52