C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods; Simulation Methods

• Model Averaging in Markov-Switching Models: Predicting National Recessions with Regional Data

  Staff Working Paper 2015-24 Pierre Guérin, Danilo Leiva-Leon

  This paper introduces new weighting schemes for model averaging when one is interested in combining discrete forecasts from competing Markov-switching models. In particular, we extend two existing classes of combination schemes – Bayesian (static) model averaging and dynamic model averaging – so as to explicitly reflect the objective of forecasting a discrete outcome.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, E37

• Targeting Inflation from Below - How Do Inflation Expectations Behave?

  Staff Working Paper 2014-52 Michael Ehrmann

  Inflation targeting (IT) had originally been introduced as a device to bring inflation down and stabilize it at low levels. Given the current environment of persistently weak inflation in many advanced economies, IT central banks must now bring inflation up to target.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E58

• Are There Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?

  Staff Working Paper 2014-46 Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian, Thomas K. Lee

  The answer as to whether there are gains from pooling real-time oil price forecasts depends on the objective. The approach of combining five of the leading forecasting models with equal weights dominates the strategy of selecting one model and using it for all horizons up to two years.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, Q, Q4, Q43

• What Does the Convenience Yield Curve Tell Us about the Crude Oil Market?

  Staff Working Paper 2014-42 Ron Alquist, Gregory Bauer, Antonio Diez de los Rios

  Using the prices of crude oil futures contracts, we construct the term structure of crude oil convenience yields out to one-year maturity. The crude oil convenience yield can be interpreted as the interest rate, denominated in barrels of oil, for borrowing a single barrel of oil, and it measures the value of storing crude oil over the borrowing period.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, G, G1, G12, G13, Q, Q4, Q43

• Balance Sheets of Financial Intermediaries: Do They Forecast Economic Activity?

  Staff Working Paper 2014-40 Rodrigo Sekkel

  This paper conducts a real-time, out-of-sample analysis of the forecasting power of various aggregate financial intermediaries’ balance sheets to a wide range of economic activity measures in the United States.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53

• Analyzing and Forecasting the Canadian Economy through the LENS Model

  Technical Report No. 102 Olivier Gervais, Marc-André Gosselin

  The authors describe the key features of a new large-scale Canadian macroeconomic forecasting model developed over the past two years at the Bank of Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E1, E17, E2, E27, E3, E37, F, F1, F17

• Forecasting Short-Term Real GDP Growth in the Euro Area and Japan Using Unrestricted MIDAS Regressions

  Staff Discussion Paper 2014-3 Maxime Leboeuf, Louis Morel

  In this paper, the authors develop a new tool to improve the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in the euro area and Japan. This new tool, which uses unrestricted mixed-data sampling (U-MIDAS) regressions, allows an evaluation of the usefulness of a wide range of indicators in predicting short-term real GDP growth.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C50, C53, E, E3, E37, E4, E47

• Consumer Attitudes and the Epidemiology of Inflation Expectations

  Staff Working Paper 2014-28 Michael Ehrmann, Damjan Pfajfar, Emiliano Santoro

  This paper studies the formation of consumers’ inflation expectations using micro-level data from the Michigan Survey. It shows that beyond the well-established socio-economic determinants of inflation expectations such as gender, income or education, other characteristics such as the households’ financial situation and their purchasing attitudes also matter.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, D, D8, D84, E, E3, E31

• Improving Overnight Loan Identification in Payments Systems

  Staff Working Paper 2014-25 Mark Rempel

  Information on the allocation and pricing of over-the-counter (OTC) markets is scarce. Furfine (1999) pioneered an algorithm that provides transaction-level data on the OTC interbank lending market.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Interest rates, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C3, C38, C5, C53, E, E4, E42, E44, G, G1, G10
• May 13, 2014

  The Art and Science of Forecasting the Real Price of Oil

  Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2014 Christiane Baumeister

  Forecasts of the price of crude oil play a significant role in the conduct of monetary policy, especially for commodity producers such as Canada. This article presents a range of recently developed forecasting models that, when pooled together, can generate, on average, more accurate forecasts of the price of oil than the oil futures curve. It also illustrates how policy-makers can evaluate the risks associated with the baseline oil price forecast and how they can determine the causes of past oil price fluctuations.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, Q, Q4, Q43