C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
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Rising US LNG Exports and Global Natural Gas Price Convergence
We assess how rising exports of US liquefied natural gas affect the convergence of natural gas prices worldwide. Our results may have implications for the development of future LNG export capacity in Canada. -
Household financial vulnerabilities and physical climate risks
Natural disasters occur more often than before, potentially exposing households to financial distress. We study the intersection between household financial vulnerabilities and severe weather events. -
Shaping the future: Policy shocks and the GDP growth distribution
Can central bank and government policies impact the risks around the outlook for GDP growth? We find that fiscal stimulus makes strong GDP growth more likely—even more so when monetary policy is constrained—rather than weak GDP growth less likely. Thus, fiscal stimulus should accelerate the recovery phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. -
Losing Contact: The Impact of Contactless Payments on Cash Usage
Contactless payment cards are a competitive alternative to cash. Using Canadian panel data from 2010 to 2017, this study investigates whether contactless credit cards are an important contributor to the decline in the transactional use of cash. -
The Determinants of Consumers’ Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the US and Canada
We compare the determinants of consumer inflation expectations in the US and Canada by analyzing two current surveys. We find that Canadian consumers rely more on professional forecasts and the history of actual inflation when forming their expectations, while US consumers rely more on their own lagged expectations. -
Earnings Dynamics and Intergenerational Transmission of Skill
How are your past, current and future earnings related to those of your parents? We explore this by using 37 years of Canadian tax data on two generations. -
Understanding Trend Inflation Through the Lens of the Goods and Services Sectors
The goods and services sectors have experienced considerably different dynamics over the past three decades. Our goal in this paper is to understand how such contrasting behaviors at the sectoral level affect the aggregate level of trend inflation dynamics. -
On Causal Networks of Financial Firms: Structural Identification via Non-parametric Heteroskedasticity
Banks’ business interactions create a network of relationships that are hidden in the correlations of bank stock returns. But for policy interventions, we need causality to understand how the network changes. Thus, this paper looks for the causal network anticipated by investors. -
Cyclicality of Schooling: New Evidence from Unobserved Components Models
What is the time-varying impact of economic cycles on decisions to invest in human capital?