C33 - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series

• Let’s Get Physical: Impacts of Climate Change Physical Risks on Provincial Employment

  Staff Working Paper 2024-32 Thibaut Duprey, Soojin Jo, Geneviève Vallée

  We analyze 40 years’ worth of natural disasters using a local projection framework to assess their impact on provincial labour markets in Canada. We find that disasters decrease hours worked within a week and lower wage growth in the medium run. Our study highlights that disasters affect vulnerable workers through the income channel.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Climate change, Labour markets, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, E, E2, E24, J, J3, Q, Q5, Q54

• Losing Contact: The Impact of Contactless Payments on Cash Usage

  Staff Working Paper 2020-56 Marie-Hélène Felt

  Contactless payment cards are a competitive alternative to cash. Using Canadian panel data from 2010 to 2017, this study investigates whether contactless credit cards are an important contributor to the decline in the transactional use of cash. 

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial services JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, D, D1, D12, E, E4, E41

• The Determinants of Consumers’ Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the US and Canada

  Staff Working Paper 2020-52 Charles Bellemare, Rolande Kpekou Tossou, Kevin Moran

  We compare the determinants of consumer inflation expectations in the US and Canada by analyzing two current surveys. We find that Canadian consumers rely more on professional forecasts and the history of actual inflation when forming their expectations, while US consumers rely more on their own lagged expectations.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, D, D8, D83, D84, E, E3, E31

• Earnings Dynamics and Intergenerational Transmission of Skill

  Staff Working Paper 2020-46 Lance Lochner, Youngmin Park

  How are your past, current and future earnings related to those of your parents? We explore this by using 37 years of Canadian tax data on two generations.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, J, J2, J24, J6, J62

• Exploring Wage Phillips Curves in Advanced Economies

  Staff Discussion Paper 2019-8 Rose Cunningham, Vikram Rai, Kristina Hess

  We investigate the extent to which excess supply (demand) in labour markets contributes to a lower (higher) growth rate of average nominal wages for workers. Using panel methods on data from 10 advanced economies for 1992–2018, we produce reduced-form estimates of a wage Phillips curve specification that is consistent with a New Keynesian framework.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, E, E3, E31, E32

• What Is Behind the Weakness in Global Investment?

  Staff Discussion Paper 2016-5 Maxime Leboeuf, Robert Fay

  The recovery in private business investment globally remains extremely weak more than seven years after the financial crisis. This paper contributes to the ongoing policy debate on the factors behind this weakness by analyzing the role of growth prospects and uncertainty in explaining developments in non-residential private business investment in large advanced economies since the crisis.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Domestic demand and components, Economic models, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, C3, C33, D, D2, D24, D8, D80, D84, E, E2, E22, F, F0, F01, G, G3, G31

• Nowcasting BRIC+M in Real Time

  Staff Working Paper 2015-38 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Justin-Damien Guénette, Garima Vasishtha

  Emerging-market economies have become increasingly important in driving global GDP growth over the past 10 to 15 years. This has made timely and accurate assessment of current and future economic activity in emerging markets important for policy-makers not only in these countries but also in advanced economies.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, C5, C53, E, E3, E37

• The Effect of the Federal Reserve’s Tapering Announcements on Emerging Markets

  Staff Working Paper 2014-50 Vikram Rai, Lena Suchanek

  The Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing (QE) program has been accompanied by a flow of funds into emerging-market economies (EMEs) in search of higher returns.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International financial markets, International topics, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, E, E5, E58, F, F3, F32, G, G1, G14

• Multivariate Tests of Mean-Variance Efficiency and Spanning with a Large Number of Assets and Time-Varying Covariances

  Staff Working Paper 2013-16 Sermin Gungor, Richard Luger

  We develop a finite-sample procedure to test for mean-variance efficiency and spanning without imposing any parametric assumptions on the distribution of model disturbances.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C15, C3, C33, G, G1, G11, G12

• Testing Linear Factor Pricing Models with Large Cross-Sections: A Distribution-Free Approach

  Staff Working Paper 2010-36 Sermin Gungor, Richard Luger

  We develop a finite-sample procedure to test the beta-pricing representation of linear factor pricing models that is applicable even if the number of test assets is greater than the length of the time series. Our distribution-free framework leaves open the possibility of unknown forms of non-normalities, heteroskedasticity, time-varying correlations, and even outliers in the asset returns.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C14, C3, C33, G, G1, G11, G12