C14 - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

• Volatility Forecasting when the Noise Variance Is Time-Varying

  Staff Working Paper 2013-48 Selma Chaker, Nour Meddahi

  This paper explores the volatility forecasting implications of a model in which the friction in high-frequency prices is related to the true underlying volatility. The contribution of this paper is to propose a framework under which the realized variance may improve volatility forecasting if the noise variance is related to the true return volatility.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, C5, C51, C58

• Volatility and Liquidity Costs

  Staff Working Paper 2013-29 Selma Chaker

  Observed high-frequency prices are contaminated with liquidity costs or market microstructure noise. Using such data, we derive a new asset return variance estimator inspired by the market microstructure literature to explicitly model the noise and remove it from observed returns before estimating their variance.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, C5, C51, C58, G, G2, G20

• A Semiparametric Early Warning Model of Financial Stress Events

  Staff Working Paper 2013-13 Ian Christensen, Fuchun Li

  The authors use the Financial Stress Index created by the International Monetary Fund to predict the likelihood of financial stress events for five developed countries: Canada, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C14, G, G0, G01, G1, G17

• Measuring Systemic Importance of Financial Institutions: An Extreme Value Theory Approach

  Staff Working Paper 2011-19 Toni Gravelle, Fuchun Li

  In this paper, we define a financial institution’s contribution to financial systemic risk as the increase in financial systemic risk conditional on the crash of the financial institution. The higher the contribution is, the more systemically important is the institution for the system.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, C5, C58, G, G2, G21, G3, G32

• Testing Linear Factor Pricing Models with Large Cross-Sections: A Distribution-Free Approach

  Staff Working Paper 2010-36 Sermin Gungor, Richard Luger

  We develop a finite-sample procedure to test the beta-pricing representation of linear factor pricing models that is applicable even if the number of test assets is greater than the length of the time series. Our distribution-free framework leaves open the possibility of unknown forms of non-normalities, heteroskedasticity, time-varying correlations, and even outliers in the asset returns.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C14, C3, C33, G, G1, G11, G12

• Empirical Likelihood Block Bootstrapping

  Staff Working Paper 2008-18 Jason Allen, Allan Gregory, Katsumi Shimotsu

  Monte Carlo evidence has made it clear that asymptotic tests based on generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation have disappointing size. The problem is exacerbated when the moment conditions are serially correlated.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, C2, C22

• Optimization in a Simulation Setting: Use of Function Approximation in Debt Strategy Analysis

  Staff Working Paper 2007-13 David Bolder, Tiago Rubin

  The stochastic simulation model suggested by Bolder (2003) for the analysis of the federal government's debt-management strategy provides a wide variety of useful information. It does not, however, assist in determining an optimal debt-management strategy for the government in its current form.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Debt management, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): C, C0, C1, C14, C15, C5, C51, C52, C6, C61, C65, E, E6, G, G1, H, H6, H63

• Testing the Parametric Specification of the Diffusion Function in a Diffusion Process

  Staff Working Paper 2005-35 Fuchun Li

  A new consistent test is proposed for the parametric specification of the diffusion function in a diffusion process without any restrictions on the functional form of the drift function.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C14

• Evaluating Linear and Non-Linear Time-Varying Forecast-Combination Methods

  Staff Working Paper 2001-12 Fuchun Li, Greg Tkacz

  This paper evaluates linear and non-linear forecast-combination methods. Among the non-linear methods, we propose a nonparametric kernel-regression weighting approach that allows maximum flexibility of the weighting parameters.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, C5, C53, E, E2, E27

• Pricing Interest Rate Derivatives in a Non-Parametric Two-Factor Term-Structure Model

  Staff Working Paper 1999-19 John Knight, Fuchun Li, Mingwei Yuan

  Diffusion functions in term-structure models are measures of uncertainty about future price movements and are directly related to the risk associated with holding financial securities. Correct specification of diffusion functions is crucial in pricing options and other derivative securities. In contrast to the standard parametric two-factor models, we propose a non-parametric two-factor term-structure model that […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, C2, C22, G, G1, G13