A - General Economics and Teaching

• Assessing the effects of higher immigration on the Canadian economy and inflation

  Staff Analytical Note 2023-17 Julien Champagne, Erik Ens, Xing Guo, Olena Kostyshyna, Alexander Lam, Corinne Luu, Sarah Miller, Patrick Sabourin, Joshua Slive, Temel Taskin, Jaime Trujillo, Shu Lin Wee

  We assess the complex macroeconomic implications of Canada’s recent population increases. We find that newcomers significantly boost the non-inflationary, potential growth of the economy, but existing imbalances in the housing sector may be exacerbated. Greater housing supply is needed to complement the long-term economic benefits of population growth.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Housing, Inflation and prices, Labour markets, Potential output, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): A, A1, A10, E, E2, E20, E3, E31, J, J1, J11, J15

• Machine learning for economics research: when, what and how

  Staff Analytical Note 2023-16 Ajit Desai

  This article reviews selected papers that use machine learning for economics research and policy analysis. Our review highlights when machine learning is used in economics, the commonly preferred models and how those models are used.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): A, A1, A10, B, B2, B23, C, C4, C45, C5, C55

• Redefining Financial Inclusion for a Digital Age: Implications for a Central Bank Digital Currency

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-22 Alexandra Sutton-Lalani, Sebastian Hernandez, John Miedema, Jiamin Dai, Badr Omrane

  We explore quantitative and qualitative information about Canadians who face barriers to making digital payments. We also consider the implications of ongoing digitalization for modern financial inclusion and a potential central bank digital currency.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Accessibility, Bank notes, Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech, Digitalization, Financial services JEL Code(s): A, A1, A14, E, E4, E42, E5, E50, I, I3, I31, O, O3, O33, O5, O51

• Predicting Changes in Canadian Housing Markets with Machine Learning

  Staff Discussion Paper 2023-21 Johan Brannlund, Helen Lao, Maureen MacIsaac, Jing Yang

  We apply two machine learning algorithms to forecast monthly growth of house prices and existing homes sales in Canada. Although the algorithms can sometimes outperform a linear model, the improvement in forecast accuracy is not always statistically significant.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Housing JEL Code(s): A, C, C4, C45, C5, C53, D, D2, R, R2, R3

• Estimating Policy Functions in Payments Systems Using Reinforcement Learning

  Staff Working Paper 2021-7 Pablo S. Castro, Ajit Desai, Han Du, Rodney J. Garratt, Francisco Rivadeneyra

  We demonstrate the ability of reinforcement learning techniques to estimate the best-response functions of banks participating in high-value payments systems—a real-world strategic game of incomplete information.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Financial institutions, Financial system regulation and policies, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): A, A1, A12, C, C7, D, D8, D83, E, E4, E42, E5, E58