Staff working papers

• The Macroeconomic Effects of Non-Zero Trend Inflation

  Staff Working Paper 2006-34 Robert Amano, Steve Ambler, Nooman Rebei

  The authors study the macroeconomic effects of non-zero trend inflation in a simple dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with sticky prices.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E32

• Are Canadian Banks Efficient? A Canada–U.S. Comparison

  Staff Working Paper 2006-33 Jason Allen, Walter Engert, Ying Liu

  The authors compare the efficiency of Canada's largest banks with U.S. commercial banks over the past 20 years. Efficiency is measured in three ways.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Financial institutions JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, D, D2, D24, G, G2, G21

• Governance and the IMF: Does the Fund Follow Corporate Best Practice?

  Staff Working Paper 2006-32 Eric Santor

  The governance challenges facing the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are not simply limited to representation and voice, and the associated question of quota allocation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3

• Assessing and Valuing the Non-Linear Structure of Hedge Fund Returns

  Staff Working Paper 2006-31 Antonio Diez de los Rios, René Garcia

  Several studies have put forward the non-linear structure and option-like features of returns associated with hedge fund strategies.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions JEL Code(s): C, C1, C5, G, G1

• Multinationals and Exchange Rate Pass-Through

  Staff Working Paper 2006-30 Alexandra Lai, Oana Secrieru

  The authors examine the impact of multinational enterprises (MNEs) on exchange rate pass-through in an environment where an MNE engages in Cournot (quantity) competition with domestic and foreign rivals.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Economic models, Exchange rates, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): F, F2, F23, L, L1, L16

• The Turning Black Tide: Energy Prices and the Canadian Dollar

  Staff Working Paper 2006-29 Ramzi Issa, Robert Lafrance, John Murray

  The authors revisit the relationship between energy prices and the Canadian dollar in the Amano and van Norden (1995) equation, which shows a negative relationship such that higher real energy prices lead to a depreciation of the Canadian dollar.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31

• Estimation of the Default Risk of Publicly Traded Canadian Companies

  Staff Working Paper 2006-28 Georges Dionne, Sadok Laajimi, Sofiane Mejri, Madalina Petrescu

  Two models of default risk are prominent in the financial literature: Merton's structural model and Altman's non-structural model.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Debt management, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, G24, G28, G3, G33

• Can Affine Term Structure Models Help Us Predict Exchange Rates?

  Staff Working Paper 2006-27 Antonio Diez de los Rios

  The author proposes an arbitrage-free model of the joint behaviour of interest and exchange rates whose exchange rate forecasts outperform those produced by a random-walk model, a vector autoregression on the forward premiums and the rate of depreciation, and the standard forward premium regression.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Exchange rates, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, F, F3, F31, G, G1, G12, G15

• Using Monthly Indicators to Predict Quarterly GDP

  Staff Working Paper 2006-26 Yi Zheng, James Rossiter

  The authors build a model for predicting current-quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) growth using anywhere from zero to three months of indicators from that quarter.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, C53

• Linear and Threshold Forecasts of Output and Inflation with Stock and Housing Prices

  Staff Working Paper 2006-25 Greg Tkacz, Carolyn A. Wilkins

  The authors examine whether simple measures of Canadian equity and housing price misalignments contain leading information about output growth and inflation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E4