Staff working papers
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Liquidity, Redistribution, and the Welfare Cost of Inflation
This paper studies the long run welfare costs of inflation in a micro-founded model with trading frictions and costly liquidity management. -
The Canadian Business Cycle: A Comparison of Models
This paper examines the ability of linear and nonlinear models to replicate features of real Canadian GDP. We evaluate the models using various business-cycle metrics. -
A vision for IMF Surveillance
The ongoing review of the IMF, initiated in 2005 by Managing Director De Rato, presents an excellent opportunity to re-examine the role, functions and governance of the Fund. -
Cross-Country Estimates of the Degree of Fiscal Dominance and Central Bank Independence
This paper studies the interdependence between fiscal and monetary policies, and their joint role in the determination of the price level. -
Gold Prices and Inflation
Using data for 14 countries over the 1994 to 2005 period, we assess the leading indicator properties of gold at horizons ranging from 6 to 24 months. -
Oil Price Movements and the Global Economy: A Model-Based Assessment
We develop a five-region version (Canada, an oil exporter, the United States, emerging Asia and Japan plus the euro area) of the Global Economy Model (GEM) encompassing production and trade of crude oil, and use it to study the international transmission mechanism of shocks that drive oil prices. -
Domestic versus External Borrowing and Fiscal Policy in Emerging Markets
Domestic public debt issued by emerging markets has risen significantly relative to international debt in recent years. Some recent empirical evidence also suggests that sovereigns have defaulted differentially on debt held by domestic and external creditors. -
Computing Optimal Policy in a Timeless-Perspective: An Application to a Small-Open Economy
Since the contribution of Kydland and Prescott (1977), it is well known that the optimal Ramsey policy is time inconsistent. In a series of recent contributions, Woodford (2003) proposes a new methodology to circumvent this problem, namely the timeless perspective solution. -
Micro Foundations of Price-Setting Behaviour: Evidence from Canadian Firms
How do firms adjust prices in the marketplace? Do they tend to adjust prices infrequently in response to changes in market conditions? If so, why? These remain key questions in macroeconomics, particularly for central banks that work to keep inflation low and stable.