Staff working papers

• The Transmission of Shocks to the Chinese Economy in a Global Context: A Model-Based Approach

  Staff Working Paper 2010-17 Jeannine Bailliu, Patrick Blagrave

  To better understand the dynamics of the Chinese economy and its interaction with the global economy, the authors incorporate China into an existing model for the G-3 economies (i.e., the United States, the euro area, and Japan), paying particular attention to modelling the exchange rate and monetary policy in China.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Exchange rate regimes, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E5, E52, F, F4, F41

• The Role of Expenditure Switching in the Global Imbalance Adjustment

  Staff Working Paper 2010-16 Wei Dong

  In theory, nominal exchange rate movements can lead to “expenditure switching” when they generate changes in the relative prices of goods across countries. This paper explores whether the expenditure-switching role of exchange rates has changed in the current episode of significant global imbalances.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F4

• Inflation and Unemployment in Competitive Search Equilibrium

  Staff Working Paper 2010-15 Mei Dong

  Using a monetary search model, Rocheteau, Rupert and Wright (2007) show that the relationship between inflation and unemployment can be positive or negative depending on the primitives of the model. The key features are indivisible labor, nonseparable preferences and bargaining.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation: costs and benefits JEL Code(s): E, E1, E12, E13, E4, E40, E5, E52

• International Capital Flows and Bond Risk Premia

  Staff Working Paper 2010-14 Jesus Sierra

  This paper studies the impact of international capital flows on asset prices through risk premia. We investigate whether foreign purchases of U.S. Treasury securities significantly contributed to the decline in excess returns on long-term bonds between 1995 and 2008.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, F, F3, F31, F32, F34, G, G1, G11, G12, G15

• Estimating the Structure of the Payment Network in the LVTS: An Application of Estimating Communities in Network Data

  Staff Working Paper 2010-13 James Chapman, Nellie Zhang

  In the Canadian large value payment system an important goal is to understand how liquidity is transferred through the system and hence how efficient the system is in settling payments. Understanding the structure of the underlying network of relationships between participants in the payment system is a crucial step in achieving the goal.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial stability, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, D, D8, D85, G, G2, G20

• Financial Stress, Monetary Policy, and Economic Activity

  Staff Working Paper 2010-12 Fuchun Li, Pierre St-Amant

  This paper examines empirically the impact of financial stress on the transmission of monetary policy shocks in Canada. The model used is a threshold vector autoregression in which a regime change occurs if financial stress conditions cross a critical threshold.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial stability, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): C, C0, C01, E, E5, E50, G, G0, G01

• Idiosyncratic Coskewness and Equity Return Anomalies

  Staff Working Paper 2010-11 Fousseni Chabi-Yo, Jun Yang

  In this paper, we show that in a model where investors have heterogeneous preferences, the expected return of risky assets depends on the idiosyncratic coskewness beta, which measures the co-movement of the individual stock variance and the market return.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G11, G12, G14, G3, G33

• On the Advantages of Disaggregated Data: Insights from Forecasting the U.S. Economy in a Data-Rich Environment

  Staff Working Paper 2010-10 Nikita Perevalov, Philipp Maier

  The good forecasting performance of factor models has been well documented in the literature. While many studies focus on a very limited set of variables (typically GDP and inflation), this study evaluates forecasting performance at disaggregated levels to examine the source of the improved forecasting accuracy, relative to a simple autoregressive model. We use the latest revision of over 100 U.S. time series over the period 1974-2009 (monthly and quarterly data).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C50, C53, E, E3, E37, E4, E47

• Alternative Optimized Monetary Policy Rules in Multi-Sector Small Open Economies: The Role of Real Rigidities

  Staff Working Paper 2010-9 Carlos De Resende, Ali Dib, Maral Kichian

  Inflation-targeting central banks around the world often state their inflation objectives with regard to the consumer price index (CPI). Yet the literature on optimal monetary policy based on models with nominal rigidities and more than one sector suggests that CPI inflation is not always the best choice from a social welfare perspective.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Inflation: costs and benefits, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E4, E5, E52, F, F3, F4

• Price Level Targeting: What Is the Right Price?

  Staff Working Paper 2010-8 Malik Shukayev, Alexander Ueberfeldt

  Various papers have suggested that Price-Level targeting is a welfare improving policy relative to Inflation targeting. From a practical standpoint, this raises an important yet unanswered question: What is the optimal price index to target?

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E5, E52