Staff working papers

• 'Lean' versus 'Rich' Data Sets: Forecasting during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession

  Staff Working Paper 2010-37 Marco J. Lombardi, Philipp Maier

  We evaluate forecasts for the euro area in data-rich and ‘data-lean' environments by comparing three different approaches: a simple PMI model based on Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs), a dynamic factor model with euro area data, and a dynamic factor model with data from the euro plus data from national economies (pseudo-real time data).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C50, C53, E, E3, E37, E4, E47

• Testing Linear Factor Pricing Models with Large Cross-Sections: A Distribution-Free Approach

  Staff Working Paper 2010-36 Sermin Gungor, Richard Luger

  We develop a finite-sample procedure to test the beta-pricing representation of linear factor pricing models that is applicable even if the number of test assets is greater than the length of the time series. Our distribution-free framework leaves open the possibility of unknown forms of non-normalities, heteroskedasticity, time-varying correlations, and even outliers in the asset returns.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C14, C3, C33, G, G1, G11, G12

• Bank Competition and International Financial Integration: Evidence Using a New Index

  Staff Working Paper 2010-35 Gurnain Pasricha

  This paper finds a strong empirical link between domestic banking sector competitiveness and de facto international integration. De-facto international integration is measured through a new index of financial integration, which measures, for deviations from covered interest parity, the size of no-arbitrage bands and the speed of arbitrage outside the no-arbitrage band.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F32, G, G1, G15, G2, G21

• Semi-Structural Models for Inflation Forecasting

  Staff Working Paper 2010-34 Maral Kichian, Rumler Fabio, Paul Corrigan

  We propose alternative single-equation semi-structural models for forecasting inflation in Canada, whereby structural New Keynesian models are combined with time-series features in the data. Several marginal cost measures are used, including one that in addition to unit labour cost also integrates relative price shocks known to play an important role in open-economies.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, C5, C53, E, E3, E31

• Composition of International Capital Flows: A Survey

  Staff Working Paper 2010-33 Koralai Kirabaeva, Assaf Razin

  We survey several key mechanisms that explain the composition of international capital flows: foreign direct investment, foreign portfolio investment and debt flows (bank loans and bonds). In particular, we focus on the following market frictions: asymmetric information in capital markets and exposure to liquidity shocks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, F, F2, F21, F3, F34

• Adverse Selection, Liquidity, and Market Breakdown

  Staff Working Paper 2010-32 Koralai Kirabaeva

  This paper studies the interaction between adverse selection, liquidity risk and beliefs about systemic risk in determining market liquidity, asset prices and welfare. Even a small amount of adverse selection in the asset market can lead to fire-sale pricing and possibly to a market breakdown if it is accompanied by a flight-to-liquidity, a misassessment of systemic risk, or uncertainty about asset values.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): D, D8, D82, G, G0, G01, G1, G11

• Text Mining and the Information Content of Bank of Canada Communications

  Staff Working Paper 2010-31 Scott Hendry, Alison Madeley

  This paper uses Latent Semantic Analysis to extract information from Bank of Canada communication statements and investigates what type of information affects returns and volatility in short-term as well as long-term interest rate markets over the 2002-2008 period.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, G, G1, G14

• On Fiscal Multipliers: Estimates from a Medium Scale DSGE Model

  Staff Working Paper 2010-30 Sarah Zubairy

  This paper contributes to the debate on fiscal multipliers, in the context of a structural model. I estimate a micro-founded dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, that features a rich fiscal policy block and a transmission mechanism for government spending shocks, using Bayesian techniques for US data.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, E, E3, E32, E6, E62, H, H3, H30

• Understanding Systemic Risk: The Trade-Offs between Capital, Short-Term Funding and Liquid Asset Holdings

  Staff Working Paper 2010-29 Céline Gauthier, Zhongfang He, Moez Souissi

  We offer a multi-period systemic risk assessment framework with which to assess recent liquidity and capital regulatory requirement proposals in a holistic way.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, C8, C81, E, E4, E44, G, G0, G01, G2, G21

• Trends in U.S. Hours and the Labor Wedge

  Staff Working Paper 2010-28 Simona Cociuba, Alexander Ueberfeldt

  From 1980 until 2007, U.S. average hours worked increased by thirteen percent, due to a large increase in female hours. At the same time, the U.S. labor wedge, measured as the discrepancy between a representative household's marginal rate of substitution between consumption and leisure and the marginal product of labor, declined substantially.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Labour markets, Potential output JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, H, H2, H20, H3, H31, J, J2, J22