Staff working papers
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Interest on Cash, Fundamental Value Process and Bubble Formation on Experimental Asset Markets
We study the formation of price bubbles on experimental asset markets where cash earns interest. There are two main conclusions. -
Multiple Fixed Effects in Binary Response Panel Data Models
This paper considers the adaptability of estimation methods for binary response panel data models to multiple fixed effects. It is motivated by the gravity equation used in international trade, where important papers such as Helpman, Melitz and Rubinstein (2008) use binary response models with fixed effects for both importing and exporting countries. -
E-Money: Efficiency, Stability and Optimal Policy
What makes e-money more special than cash? Is the introduction of e-money necessarily welfare enhancing? Is an e-money system necessarily stable? What is the optimal way to design an efficient and stable e-money scheme? -
The Efficiency of Private E-Money-Like Systems: The U.S. Experience with State Bank Notes
In the United States prior to 1863 each bank issued its own distinct notes. E-money shares many of the characteristics of these bank notes. This paper describes some lessons relevant to e-money from the U.S. experience with state bank notes. -
Uncertain Costs and Vertical Differentiation in an Insurance Duopoly
Classical oligopoly models predict that firms differentiate vertically as a way of softening price competition, but some metrics suggest very little quality differentiation in the U.S. auto insurance market. -
Bond Risk Premia and Gaussian Term Structure Models
Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005) show that (i) lagged forward rates improve the predictability of annual bond returns, adding to current forward rates, and that (ii) a Markovian model for monthly forward rates cannot generate the pattern of predictability in annual returns. -
Do Sunspots Matter? Evidence from an Experimental Study of Bank Runs
A "sunspot" is a variable that has no direct impact on the economy’s fundamental condition, such as preferences, endowments or technologies, but may nonetheless affect economic outcomes through the expectations channel as a coordination device. This paper investigates how people react to sunspots in the context of a bank-run game in a controlled laboratory environment. -
Do High-Frequency Financial Data Help Forecast Oil Prices? The MIDAS Touch at Work
The substantial variation in the real price of oil since 2003 has renewed interest in the question of how to forecast monthly and quarterly oil prices. There also has been increased interest in the link between financial markets and oil markets, including the question of whether financial market information helps forecast the real price of oil in physical markets. -
Macroeconomic Experiences and Risk Taking of Euro Area Households
This paper studies to what extent the experiences of households shape their willingness to take financial risks. It follows the methodology of Malmendier and Nagel (2011) and applies it to a novel data set on household finances covering euro area households.