Staff working papers

• Credit Conditions and Consumption, House Prices and Debt: What Makes Canada Different?

  Staff Working Paper 2015-40 John Muellbauer, Pierre St-Amant, David Williams

  There is widespread agreement that, in the United States, higher house prices raise consumption via collateral or possibly wealth effects. The presence of similar channels in Canada would have important implications for monetary policy transmission.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Domestic demand and components, Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, Housing, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E0, E02, E2, E21, E4, E44, G, G2, G21, R, R2, R21, R3, R31

• Option Valuation with Observable Volatility and Jump Dynamics

  Staff Working Paper 2015-39 Peter Christoffersen, Bruno Feunou, Yoontae Jeon

  Under very general conditions, the total quadratic variation of a jump-diffusion process can be decomposed into diffusive volatility and squared jump variation. We use this result to develop a new option valuation model in which the underlying asset price exhibits volatility and jump intensity dynamics.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12

• Nowcasting BRIC+M in Real Time

  Staff Working Paper 2015-38 Tatjana Dahlhaus, Justin-Damien Guénette, Garima Vasishtha

  Emerging-market economies have become increasingly important in driving global GDP growth over the past 10 to 15 years. This has made timely and accurate assessment of current and future economic activity in emerging markets important for policy-makers not only in these countries but also in advanced economies.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C3, C33, C5, C53, E, E3, E37

• Domestic and Multilateral Effects of Capital Controls in Emerging Markets

  Staff Working Paper 2015-37 Gurnain Pasricha, Matteo Falagiarda, Martin Bijsterbosch, Joshua Aizenman

  Using a novel data set on capital control actions in 17 emerging-market economies (EMEs) over the period 2001–11, we provide new evidence on domestic and multilateral (or spillover) effects of capital controls.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial system regulation and policies, International financial markets, International topics, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): F, F3, F32, F4, F41, F42, G, G1, G15

• Downside Variance Risk Premium

  Staff Working Paper 2015-36 Bruno Feunou, Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar, Cédric Okou

  We decompose the variance risk premium into upside and downside variance risk premia. These components reflect market compensation for changes in good and bad uncertainties. Their difference is a measure of the skewness risk premium (SRP), which captures asymmetric views on favorable versus undesirable risks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12

• The Carrot and the Stick: The Business Cycle Implications of Incentive Pay in the Labor Search Model

  Staff Working Paper 2015-35 Julien Champagne

  This paper considers a real business cycle model with labor search frictions where two types of incentive pay are explicitly introduced following the insights from the micro literature on performance pay (e.g. Lazear, 1986).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J3, J33, J4, J41

• Heterogeneity in the Dynamic Effects of Uncertainty on Investment

  Staff Working Paper 2015-34 Sungje Byun, Soojin Jo

  How does aggregate profit uncertainty influence investment activity at the firm level? We propose a parsimonious adaptation of a factor-autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model to exploit information in a subindustry sales panel for an efficient and tractable estimation of aggregate volatility.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Domestic demand and components, Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C23, D, D8, D80, E, E2, E22

• Cheap But Flighty: How Global Imbalances Create Financial Fragility

  Staff Working Paper 2015-33 Enrico Perotti, Toni Ahnert

  We analyze how a wealth shift to emerging countries may lead to instability in developed countries. Investors exposed to expropriation risk are willing to pay a safety premium to invest in countries with good property rights.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): F, F3, G, G2

• Quantifying Contagion Risk in Funding Markets: A Model-Based Stress-Testing Approach

  Staff Working Paper 2015-32 Kartik Anand, Céline Gauthier, Moez Souissi

  We propose a tractable, model-based stress-testing framework where the solvency risks, funding liquidity risks and market risks of banks are intertwined.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): C, C7, C72, E, E5, E58, G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G28

• Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Currency of Invoicing and Market Share

  Staff Working Paper 2015-31 Michael Devereux, Wei Dong, Ben Tomlin

  This paper investigates the impact of market structure on the joint determination of exchange rate pass-through and currency of invoicing in international trade. A novel feature of the study is the focus on market share of firms on both sides of the market—that is, exporting firms and importing firms.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation and prices, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): F, F3, F4