Staff working papers
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The COVID-19 Consumption Game-Changer: Evidence from a Large-Scale Multi-Country Survey
A multi-country consumer survey investigates why and how much households decreased their consumption in five key sectors after pandemic-related restrictions were lifted in Europe in July 2020. Beyond infection risk and precautionary saving motives, households also reported not missing some consumption items, which may indicate preference shifts and structural changes in the post-COVID-19 economy. -
Are Bank Bailouts Welfare Improving?
Financial sector bailouts, while potentially beneficial during a crisis, might lead to excessive risk taking if anticipated. Taking expectations and aggregate risk implications into account, we show that bailouts can be welfare improving, but only if capital adequacy constraints are sufficiently tight. -
Optimal Monetary Policy According to HANK
We study optimal monetary policy in an analytically tractable Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model. In the model, the central bank has an incentive to reduce consumption inequality in addition to keeping economic activity at its efficient level and inflation stable. -
Evaluating the Effects of Forward Guidance and Large-scale Asset Purchases
I propose a novel method to identify and estimate the macroeconomic effects of forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases (LSAP) for each FOMC announcement. I find that LSAP is more important than forward guidance in influencing output and inflation. LSAP puts upward pressure on short-term yields, so it should always be used in conjunction with forward guidance. -
What to Target? Insights from a Lab Experiment
In a laboratory experiment, we ask participants to predict inflation using three different policy regimes: inflation targeting—with and without greater communication of the target—average inflation targeting and price level targeting. We use participants’ predictions to compare the level and stability of inflation under each regime. -
What Can Stockouts Tell Us About Inflation? Evidence from Online Micro Data
Did supply disruptions and cost pressures play a role in rising inflation in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic? Using data collected from websites of large retailers in multiple sectors and countries, we show that shortages may indicate transitory inflationary pressures. -
Fiscal and Monetary Stabilization Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: Consequences of Limited Foresight
How do outcomes of monetary and fiscal stabilization policies at the zero lower bound change when decision makers have finite planning horizons in the economy? We explore the effects of limited foresight on policy tools and the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy. -
Systemic Risk and Portfolio Diversification: Evidence from the Futures Market
This paper explores how the Canadian futures market contributed to banks’ systemic risk during the 2008 financial crisis. It finds that core banks as a whole traded against the periphery, in this way increasing their risk of simultaneous losses. -
Job Applications and Labour Market Flows
Although the number of job applications has risen, job-finding rates remain relatively unchanged while job-separation rates have significantly declined. Rather than raising the probability of finding a job, we find that a rise in applications raises the probability of finding a good match, as evidenced by the decline in separation rates.