Staff working papers
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On the Nature and the Stability of the Canadian Phillips Curve
This paper empirically determines why, during the 1990s, inflation in Canada was consistently more stable than predicted by the fixed-coefficients Phillips curve. A time-varying-coefficient model, where all the parameters adjust simultaneously, shows that the behaviour of expectations was probably a major contributing factor. -
On Commodity-Sensitive Currencies and Inflation Targeting
Two aspects of the recent monetary history of Canada, Australia, and New Zealand stand out: the sensitivity of their dollars to prices of resource-based commodities, and inflation targeting. This paper explores various aspects of these phenomena. -
Exact Non-Parametric Tests for a Random Walk with Unknown Drift under Conditional Heteroscedasticity
This paper proposes a class of linear signed rank statistics to test for a random walk with unknown drift in the presence of arbitrary forms of conditional heteroscedasticity. -
The Elements of the Global Network for Large-Value Funds Transfers
The author describes the various elements of the global payment network for large-value funds transfers (G-LVTN) in order to provide a convenient reference document intended for readers in the academic, legal, and financial communities. -
The Application of Artificial Neural Networks to Exchange Rate Forecasting: The Role of Market Microstructure Variables
Artificial neural networks (ANN) are employed for high-frequency Canada/U.S. dollar exchange rate forecasting. ANN outperform random walk and linear models in a number of recursive out-of- sample forecasts. -
Une analyse empirique du lien entre la productivité et le taux de change réel Canada-É-U
The relative productivity gap between Canada and the United States is a controversial subject matter. One argument especially contentious in this debate stems from the belief that the gradual depreciation of the Canadian dollar over the last 20 years has been one of the determinants of the productivity gap. -
Steps in Applying Extreme Value Theory to Finance: A Review
Extreme value theory (EVT) has been applied in fields such as hydrology and insurance. It is a tool used to consider probabilities associated with extreme and thus rare events. EVT is useful in modelling the impact of crashes or situations of extreme stress on investor portfolios. -
Le modèle USM d'analyse et de projection de l'économie américaine
In this study, the author presents a new forecast and analysis model for the U.S. economy (i.e., the USM model) constructed at the Bank of Canada. The USM has a number of advantages over its predecessor, the VSM model. -
Les effets réels du cours des actions sur la consommation
During the nineties, stock prices increased remarkably. The number of households owning stocks also rose considerably. If stock market wealth has an effect on consumers' decisions, then the rise in equity prices could have contributed to the growth in consumption in recent years.