Staff working papers

• Valuation of Canadian- vs. U.S.-Listed Equity: Is There a Discount?

  Staff Working Paper 2003-6 Michael R. King, Dan Segal

  The authors examine how the valuation multiples assigned to the equity of Canadian-listed firms compare with the equity of comparable firms listed in the United States. They find that Canadian-listed firms trade at a discount to U.S.-listed firms across a range of valuation measures.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G15

• Shift Contagion in Asset Markets

  Staff Working Paper 2003-5 Toni Gravelle, Maral Kichian, James Morley

  The authors develop a new methodology to investigate how crises cause the relationship between financial variables to change. Two possible sources of increased co-movement between markets during high-variance episodes are considered: larger common shocks operating through standard market linkages, and a structural change in the propagation of shocks between markets, called "shift contagion."

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, F, F4, F42, G, G1, G15

• Are Distorted Beliefs Too Good to be True?

  Staff Working Paper 2003-4 Miroslav Misina

  In a recent attempt to account for the equity-premium puzzle within a representative-agent model, Cecchetti, Lam, and Mark (2000) relax the assumption of rational expectations and in its place use the assumption of distorted beliefs. The author shows that the explanatory power of the distorted beliefs model is due to an inconsistency in the model and that an attempt to remove this inconsistency removes the model's explanatory power.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial markets JEL Code(s): D, D8, D84, G, G1, G12

• Modélisation et prévision du taux de change réel effectif américain

  Staff Working Paper 2003-3 René Lalonde, Patrick Sabourin

  This study describes a simple model for predicting the real U.S. exchange rate. Starting with a large number of error-correction models, the authors choose the one giving the best out-of-sample forecasts over the period 1992Q3–2002Q1.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Exchange rates, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E1, E17, F, F3, F31, F4, F47

• Managing Operational Risk in Payment, Clearing, and Settlement Systems

  Staff Working Paper 2003-2 Kim McPhail

  Awareness of operational risk has increased greatly in recent years, both at individual financial institutions and for payment, clearing, and settlement systems (PCSS). PCSS consist of networks of interconnected elements (i.e., central operators, participants, and settlement agents); operational problems at any one of the key elements have the potential to disrupt the system as a whole and negatively affect financial stability.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, G, G2, G21

• Banking Crises and Contagion: Empirical Evidence

  Staff Working Paper 2003-1 Eric Santor

  Recent events, such as the East Asian, Mexican, Scandinavian, and Argentinian crises, have sparked considerable interest in exploring how shocks experienced by one country can spread vis-à-vis real and nominal links to other countries' banking systems. Given the large costs associated with banking-system failures, both economists and policy-makers are interested in predicting the onset of banking crises and assessing the likelihood of contagion during crisis events.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F30, G, G2, G20

• Salaire réel, chocs technologiques et fluctuations économiques

  Staff Working Paper 2002-42 Dominique Tremblay

  The author presents empirical evidence that he has obtained from an analysis of the response of different economic variables, including the real wage rate, to a technology shock.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C3, C32, E, E2, E24, E3, E32

• Estimating Settlement Risk and the Potential for Contagion in Canada's Automated Clearing Settlement System

  Staff Working Paper 2002-41 Carol Ann Northcott

  Payments systems operate virtually unnoticed in our daily lives and yet are crucial to a wellfunctioning economy and financial system.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, G, G2, G21

• Inflation Changes, Yield Spreads, and Threshold Effects

  Staff Working Paper 2002-40 Greg Tkacz

  Using interest rate yield spreads to explain changes in inflation, we investigate whether such relationships can be modelled using two-regime threshold models.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, E, E3, E31

• An Empirical Analysis of Dynamic Interrelationships Among Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty, Relative Price Dispersion, and Output Growth

  Staff Working Paper 2002-39 Francis Vitek

  Within a unified framework, the author conducts an empirical investigation of dynamic interrelationships among inflation, inflation uncertainty, relative price dispersion, and output growth.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31