Staff research

• April 2017 Annual Reassessment of Potential Output Growth in Canada

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-5 Andrew Agopsowicz, Bassirou Gueye, Natalia Kyui, Youngmin Park, Mohanad Salameh, Ben Tomlin

  This note summarizes the Bank of Canada’s annual reassessment of potential output growth, conducted for the April 2017 Monetary Policy Report. Potential output growth is projected to increase from 1.3 per cent in 2017 to 1.6 per cent by 2020.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Labour markets, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E0, E00, E2, E22, E23, E24, E3, E37, E6

• A Canada-US Comparison of Labour Market Conditions

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-4 Dany Brouillette, Katerina Gribbin, Justin-Damien Guénette, James Ketcheson, Olena Kostyshyna, Jonathan Lachaine, Colin Scarffe

  In this note, we provide a brief comparison of the recent developments in the labour markets in Canada and the United States. Our analysis indicates that slack remains in the Canadian labour market, while the US labour market is close to full employment.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J22, J23

• Assessing Global Potential Output Growth

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-3 Patrick Alexander, Michael Francis, Christopher Hajzler, Patrick Kirby, Louis Poirier, Sri Thanabalasingam, Kristina Hess

  This note estimates potential output growth for the global economy through 2019. While there is considerable uncertainty surrounding our estimates, overall we expect global potential output growth to rise modestly, from 3.1 per cent in 2016 to 3.4 per cent in 2019.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): International topics, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E10, E2, E20, O, O4

• Anticipated Technology Shocks: A Re‐Evaluation Using Cointegrated Technologies

  Staff Working Paper 2017-11 Joel Wagner

  Two approaches have been taken in the literature to evaluate the relative importance of news shocks as a source of business cycle volatility. The first is an empirical approach that performs a structural vector autoregression to assess the relative importance of news shocks, while the second is a structural-model-based approach.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32

• Assessing the Business Outlook Survey Indicator Using Real-Time Data

  Staff Discussion Paper 2017-5 Lise Pichette, Marie-Noëlle Robitaille

  Every quarter, the Bank of Canada conducts quarterly consultations with businesses across Canada, referred to as the Business Outlook Survey (BOS). A principal-component analysis conducted by Pichette and Rennison (2011) led to the development of the BOS indicator, which summarizes survey results and is used by the Bank as a gauge of overall business sentiment.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C8, C82, E, E3, E37
• March 31, 2017

  Research Update - March 2017

  This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters

• What Explains the Recent Increase in Canadian Corporate Bond Spreads

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-2 Maxime Leboeuf, James Pinnington

  The spread between the yield of a corporate bond and the yield of a similar Government of Canada bond reflects compensation for possible default by the issuing firm and compensation for additional risks beyond default.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12

• The Bank of Canada 2015 Retailer Survey on the Cost of Payment Methods: Estimation of the Total Private Cost for Large Businesses

  Technical Report No. 110 Valéry Dongmo Jiongo

  The Bank of Canada 2015 Retailer Survey on the Cost of Payment Methods faced low response rates and outliers in sample data for two of its retailer strata: chains and large independent businesses. This technical report investigates whether it is appropriate to combine these two strata to produce more accurate estimates of the total private cost to large businesses of the main payment methods.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C8, C83

• The Bank of Canada 2015 Retailer Survey on the Cost of Payment Methods: Calibration for Single-Location Retailers

  Technical Report No. 109 Heng Chen, Rallye Shen

  Calibrated weights are created to (a) reduce the nonresponse bias; (b) reduce the coverage error; and (c) make the weighted estimates from the sample consistent with the target population in terms of certain key variables.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C8, C81, C83

• The Bank of Canada 2015 Retailer Survey on the Cost of Payment Methods: Sampling

  Technical Report No. 108 Angelika Welte

  In 2015, the Bank of Canada undertook the large-scale Retailer Survey on the Cost of Payment Methods.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C8, C81, C83