Staff research

• The uneven economic consequences of COVID 19: A structural analysis

  Staff Analytical Note 2021-17 Martin Kuncl, Austin McWhirter, Alexander Ueberfeldt

  Using a structural model, we study the economic consequences of the COVID-19 shock. The uneven consequences, such as higher unemployment among young households, amplify the negative implications for the macroeconomy, household vulnerabilities and consumption inequality. Government support programs have stimulated the economy and lowered inequality and medium-term vulnerabilities.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Fiscal policy, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E20, E5, E52, E6, E62

• Monetary Policy and the Persistent Aggregate Effects of Wealth Redistribution

  Staff Working Paper 2021-38 Martin Kuncl, Alexander Ueberfeldt

  Monetary policy in the presence of nominal debt and labour supply heterogeneity creates a policy trade-off: a short-term economic stimulus leads to persistently reduced output over the medium term. Price-level targeting weakens this trade-off and is better able to stabilize inflation and output than inflation targeting.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E5, E50

• Estimating Large-Dimensional Connectedness Tables: The Great Moderation Through the Lens of Sectoral Spillovers

  Staff Working Paper 2021-37 Felix Brunner, Ruben Hipp

  Understanding the size of sectoral links is crucial to predicting the impact of a crisis on the whole economy. We show that statistical learning techniques substantially outperform traditional estimation techniques when measuring large networks of these links.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, C52, E, E2, E23, E27
• July 31, 2021

  Research Update - July 2021

  This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters

• Cash and COVID-19: The impact of the second wave in Canada

  Staff Discussion Paper 2021-12 Heng Chen, Walter Engert, Marie-Hélène Felt, Kim Huynh, Gradon Nicholls, Daneal O’Habib, Julia Zhu

  The COVID-19 pandemic significantly increased the demand for cash. Cash in circulation increased sharply from March through December 2020, particularly in the early months of this period. Although use of electronic methods of payment also increased significantly, cash use for payments remains high for low-value transactions and among certain demographic groups.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C9, E, E4, O, O5, O54

• Tariffs and the Exchange Rate: Evidence from Twitter

  Staff Working Paper 2021-36 Dmitry Matveev, Francisco Ruge-Murcia

  Do tariffs affect exchange rates? We look at President Trump’s tweets during talks on the North American Free Trade Agreement and find that anticipation of higher tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico led to an appreciation of the US dollar relative to Canadian and Mexican currency.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Trade integration JEL Code(s): F, F1, F13, F3, F31

• The Positive Case for a CBDC

  Staff Discussion Paper 2021-11 Andrew Usher, Edona Reshidi, Francisco Rivadeneyra, Scott Hendry

  We discuss the competition and innovation arguments for issuing a central bank digital currency (CBDC). A CBDC could be an effective competition policy tool for payments. A CBDC could also support the vibrancy of the digital economy. It could help solve market failures and foster competition and innovation in new digital payments markets.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Digital currencies and fintech, Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E58, L, L4, L5

• Exploring the potential benefits of inflation overshooting

  Staff Analytical Note 2021-16 Robert Amano, Marc-André Gosselin, Kurt See

  After a period with the interest rate at the effective lower bound, temporarily overshooting inflation may offer important economic benefits. This may be especially true for vulnerable segments of the population, such as workers with low attachment to the labour force and the long-term unemployed.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Inflation targets, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52, J, J2, J20

• Stressed but not Helpless: Strategic Behaviour of Banks Under Adverse Market Conditions

  Staff Working Paper 2021-35 Grzegorz Halaj, Sofia Priazhkina

  Our stress-testing tool considers banks under stress that can strategically manage their balance sheets. Using confidential Canadian supervisory data, we assess whether bank behaviour to maximize shareholder value can amplify a hypothetical stress scenario.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, C7, C72, G, G2, G21

• Sequencing Extended Monetary Policies at the Effective Lower Bound

  Staff Discussion Paper 2021-10 Yang Zhang, Lena Suchanek, Jonathan Swarbrick, Joel Wagner, Tudor Schlanger

  In this analysis, we use simulations in the Bank of Canada’s projection model—the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model—to consider a suite of extended monetary policies to support the economy following the COVID-19 crisis.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Monetary policy, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E4, E5, E52, E58