Staff research

• Potential netting benefits from expanded central clearing in Canada’s fixed-income market

  Staff Analytical Note 2022-8 Jessie Ziqing Chen, Johannes Chen, Shamarthi Ghosh, Manu Pandey, Adrian Walton

  We assess whether more central clearing would enhance the resilience of Canadian fixed-income markets. Our analysis estimates the potential benefits of balance sheet netting under scenarios where central clearing is expanded to new participants.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Credit risk management, Financial institutions, Financial markets JEL Code(s): D, D4, G, G1, G12, G2, G21, G29

• Analyzing the house price boom in the suburbs of Canada’s major cities during the pandemic

  Staff Analytical Note 2022-7 Louis Morel

  We assess how location affects house prices in Canada. The gap in prices between suburbs and downtown was closing gradually before the pandemic. The gap has been closing faster since spring 2020. This finding reflects a shift in preferences toward more living space.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Asset pricing, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial stability, Housing JEL Code(s): R, R2, R21, R23, R3, R32

• Endogenous Liquidity and Capital Reallocation

  Staff Working Paper 2022-27 Wei Cui, Randall Wright, Yu Zhu

  We study economies where firms acquire capital in primary markets then retrade it in secondary markets after information on idiosyncratic productivity arrives. Our secondary markets incorporate bilateral trade with search, bargaining and liquidity frictions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, E22, E4, E44

• Cash in the Pocket, Cash in the Cloud: Cash Holdings of Bitcoin Owners

  Staff Working Paper 2022-26 Daniela Balutel, Christopher Henry, Kim Huynh, Marcel Voia

  We estimate the effect that owning Bitcoin has on the amount of cash held by Canadian consumers. Our results question the view that adopting certain new technologies, such as Bitcoin, leads to a decline in cash holdings.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Digital currencies and fintech, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, E, E4, O, O3, O33, O5, O51

• Settlement Balances Deconstructed

  Staff Discussion Paper 2022-13 Parnell Chu, Grahame Johnson, Scott Kinnear, Karen McGuinness, Matthew McNeely

  Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, public interest in the Bank’s balance sheet and, more specifically, the size of settlement balances, has grown. This paper deconstructs the concept of settlement balances and provides some context on their history, current state and possible future evolution.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial markets, Monetary policy implementation JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, E59, E6, G, G0, G01

• Foreign Exchange Interventions: The Long and the Short of It

  Staff Working Paper 2022-25 Patrick Alexander, Sami Alpanda, Serdar Kabaca

  This paper studies the effects of foreign exchange (FX) interventions in a two-region model where governments issue both short- and long-term bonds. We find that the term premium channel dominates the trade balance channel in our calibrated model. As a result, the conventional beggar-thy-neighbor effects of interventions are overturned.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Exchange rate regimes, Exchange rates, Foreign reserves management, International financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F31, F33, F4, F41
• May 31, 2022

  Research Update - May 2022

  This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters

• How well can large banks in Canada withstand a severe economic downturn?

  Staff Analytical Note 2022-6 Andisheh (Andy) Danaee, Harsimran Grewal, Brad Howell, Guillaume Ouellet Leblanc, Xuezhi Liu, Mayur Patel, Xiangjin Shen

  We examine the potential impacts of a severe economic shock on the resilience of major banks in Canada. We find these banks would suffer significant financial losses but nevertheless remain resilient. This underscores the role well-capitalized banks and sound underwriting practices play in supporting economic activity in a downturn.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E3, E37, E4, E44, G, G1, G2, G21, G23

• Financial Intermediaries and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from a High-Frequency Identification

  Staff Working Paper 2022-24 Pablo Ottonello, Wenting Song

  We provide empirical evidence of effects to the aggregate economy from surprises about financial intermediaries’ net worth based on a high-frequency identification strategy. We estimate that news of a 1% decline in intermediaries’ net worth leads to a 0.2%–0.4% decrease in the market value of nonfinancial firms.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Monetary and financial indicators JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, E5, E51, G, G0, G01, G1, G12, G2, G21, G23, G24, G3, G32

• Transmission of Cyber Risk Through the Canadian Wholesale Payment System

  Staff Working Paper 2022-23 Anneke Kosse, Zhentong Lu

  This paper studies how the impact of a cyber attack that paralyzes one or multiple banks' ability to send payments would transmit to other banks through the Canadian wholesale payment system. Based on historical payment data, we simulate a wide range of scenarios and evaluate the total payment disruption in the system.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): C, C4, C49, E, E4, E42, E47, G, G2, G21