Staff research

• State Space and ARMA Models: An Overview of the Equivalence

  Staff Working Paper 1993-00 Paul Gilbert

  In this paper known results about the equivalence of state space and autoregressive moving-average models with exogenous inputs (ARMAX) (including vector auto-regressive or VAR models) are reviewed. While most of these results are not new, no single reference appears to bring together several important related points.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers

• Un modèle du coût du financement et du ratio d'endettement des entreprises non financières

  Technical Report No. 61 Jean-François Fillion

  The main aim of this paper is to calculate the cost of financing for Canadian non-financial businesses and to develop a model to explain financing cost trends on the basis of selected macroeconomic variables. The model described herein is a system based on four equations: one for the real after-tax cost of financing; one for […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Economic models

• Fiscal Policy and External Balance in the G-7 Countries

  Technical Report No. 60 Stephen S. Poloz

  This paper assesses evidence, from the G-7 countries, of a link between a country's fiscal policy and its external balance, often referred to as the "twin deficits" phenomenon. It begins by reviewing the stylized facts, and then examines the theoretical case for such a link.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Fiscal policy, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F32, F4, F41, H, H6, H60

• A Simple Multivariate Filter for the Measurement of Potential Output

  Technical Report No. 59 Douglas Laxton, Robert Tetlow

  This paper examines techniques that have been used to estimate potential output and finds them wanting. We suggest a simple multivariate-filtering technique that is a generalization of the Hodrick-Prescott univariate filter. In univariate filters, only information about a variable itself is used in eliminating noise in order to obtain an estimate of the underlying trend. […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Potential output JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, E, E2

• Is Hysteresis a Characteristic of the Canadian Labour Market? A Tale of Two Studies

  Staff Working Paper 1992-3 Stephen S. Poloz, Gordon Wilkinson

  This paper replicates and extends the econometric work of two previous studies of output-inflation dynamics in Canada -- Fortin (1991) and Cozier and Wilkinson (1991) -- in an attempt to reconcile their divergent conclusions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers

• Government Debt in an Open Economy

  Technical Report No. 58 Douglas Laxton, Robert Tetlow

  This paper introduces the CORE model, a prototype for a new quarterly model of the Canadian economy, designed for projections and policy analysis with focus beyond the very short run. The model has a clearly defined equilibrium and explicit adjustment mechanisms, primarily through relative prices, that are dynamically stable. Overlaid on a neo-classical growth model […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Fiscal policy JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, F, F3, F32, H, H3, H30, H6, H60

• Some Implications of International Financial Integration for Canadian Public Policy

  Technical Report No. 57 William White

  The domestic capital markets of the major industrial countries have become more closely integrated over the last two decades, a by-product of regulatory and technological change. This paper considers some of the implications of those changes for Canadian public policy. While no profound implications are found for Canadian macroeconomic policies, which probably reflects a long […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): E, E5, E50, F, F3, F33, H, H3, H30

• Wage and Price Dynamics in Canada

  Technical Report No. 56 Barry Cozier

  This paper examines wage and price dynamics in Canada with a view towards testing the implications of a wage-price dynamics, according to which unit labour costs are determined by a wage Phillips curve while prices are set as a markup over unit labour costs. This model is compared to an alternative model in which excess […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C5, C51, C52, E, E2, E24, E3, E31

• Some Evidence on Hysteresis and the Costs of Disinflation in Canada

  Technical Report No. 55 Barry Cozier, Gordon Wilkinson

  This paper addresses the following questions: How large are the output costs of disinflation in Canada? Are these costs temporary, as predicted by natural-rate models, or are they permanent, as predicted by hysteresis models? Are the costs of disinflation higher at lower rates of inflation? Are they higher when the economy is at or below […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Labour markets JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, E3, E31

• The Goal of Price Stability: A Review of the Issues

  Technical Report No. 54 Jack Selody

  The basic responsibility of a central bank is to preserve the value of money—that is, to maintain stability in the general level of prices. This report pulls together the main arguments for and against price stability as the appropriate goal for monetary policy. The available evidence suggests that the benefits of price stability are many […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Inflation targets JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E50