Staff research

• Time-Consistent Control in Non-Linear Models

  Staff Working Paper 2007-3 Steve Ambler, Florian Pelgrin

  We show how to use optimal control theory to derive optimal time-consistent Markov-perfect government policies in nonlinear dynamic general equilibrium models, extending the result of Cohen and Michel (1988) for models with quadratic objective functions and linear dynamics. We replace private agents' costates by flexible functions of current states in the government's maximization problem.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Fiscal policy, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): C, C6, C63, E, E6, E61, E62

• Housing Market Cycles and Duration Dependence in the United States and Canada

  Staff Working Paper 2007-2 Rose Cunningham, Ilan Kolet

  Housing wealth is a large component of total wealth and plays an important role in aggregate business cycles. In this paper, we explore data on real house price cycles at the aggregate level and city level for the United States and Canada.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C4, C41, E, E3, E32, R, R2, R21

• How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables

  Staff Working Paper 2007-1 John Galbraith, Greg Tkacz

  For stationary transformations of variables, there exists a maximum horizon beyond which forecasts can provide no more information about the variable than is present in the unconditional mean. Meteorological forecasts, typically excepting only experimental or exploratory situations, are not reported beyond this horizon; by contrast, little generally accepted information about such maximum horizons is available for economic variables.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53

• Canadian City Housing Prices and Urban Market Segmentation

  Staff Working Paper 2006-49 Jason Allen, Robert Amano, David Byrne, Allan Gregory

  The authors provide a detailed empirical analysis of Canadian city housing prices. They examine the long-run relationship between city house prices in Canada from 1981 to 2005 as well as idiosyncratic relations between city prices and city-specific variables.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Regional economic developments JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C3, C32, R, R2

• Modelling Term-Structure Dynamics for Risk Management: A Practitioner's Perspective

  Staff Working Paper 2006-48 David Bolder

  Modelling term-structure dynamics is an important component in measuring and managing the exposure of portfolios to adverse movements in interest rates.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C0, C6, E, E4, G, G1

• Stress Testing the Corporate Loans Portfolio of the Canadian Banking Sector

  Staff Working Paper 2006-47 Miroslav Misina, David Tessier, Shubhasis Dey

  Stress testing, at its most general level, is an investigation of the performance of an entity under abnormal operating conditions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, G, G2, G21, G3, G33

• Survey-Based Estimates of the Term Structure of Expected U.S. Inflation

  Staff Working Paper 2006-46 Sharon Kozicki, P. A. Tinsley

  Surveys provide direct information on expectations, but only short histories are available at quarterly frequencies or for long-horizon expectations.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Monetary policy and uncertainty JEL Code(s): E, E3, E5

• The Role of Debt and Equity Finance over the Business Cycle

  Staff Working Paper 2006-45 Francisco Covas, Wouter den Haan

  The authors show that debt and equity issuance are procyclical for most listed U.S. firms.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Financial stability JEL Code(s): E, E3, G, G1, G3

• The Long-Term Effects of Cross-Listing, Investor Recognition, and Ownership Structure on Valuation

  Staff Working Paper 2006-44 Michael R. King, Dan Segal

  The authors show that the widening of a foreign firm's U.S. investor base and the improved information environment associated with cross-listing on a U.S. exchange each have a separately identifiable effect on a firm's valuation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): G, G1, G12, G15

• ToTEM: The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model

  Technical Report No. 97 Stephen Murchison, Andrew Rennison

  The authors provide a detailed technical description of the Terms-of-Trade Economic Model (ToTEM), which replaced the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) in December 2005 as the Bank's principal projection and policy-analysis model for the Canadian economy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): E, E1, E17, E2, E20, E3, E30, E4, E40, E5, E50, F, F4, F41