Staff research

• Assessing the Implementation of the IMF's 2007 Surveillance Decision

  Staff Discussion Paper 2009-6 Robert Lavigne, Garima Vasishtha

  The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently adopted the "2007 Decision on Bilateral Surveillance Over Members' Policies," a landmark reform that modernizes the general principles of IMF surveillance. However, support for the reform was not unanimous, and doubts have been expressed about how the Decision would be applied in practice. The authors assess the first year […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): International topics JEL Code(s): F, F3, F33

• Inventories and Real Rigidities in New Keynesian Business Cycle Models

  Staff Working Paper 2009-9 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Virgiliu Midrigan

  Kryvtsov and Midrigan (2008) study the behavior of inventories in an economy with menu costs, fixed ordering costs and the possibility of stock-outs. This paper extends their analysis to a richer setting that is capable of more closely accounting for the dynamics of the US business cycle.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, F, F1, F12

• Optimal Policy under Commitment and Price Level Stationarity

  Staff Working Paper 2009-8 Gino Cateau

  This paper proposes a simple analytical method to determine the stationarity of an unnormalized variable from the solution to a normalized model i.e. a model whose variables must be expressed in relative terms or must be differenced for a solution to exist.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58

• Assessing Indexation-Based Calvo Inflation Models

  Staff Working Paper 2009-7 Jean-Marie Dufour, Lynda Khalaf, Maral Kichian

  Using identification-robust methods, the authors estimate and evaluate for Canada and the United States various classes of inflation equations based on generalized structural Calvo-type models. The models allow for different forms of frictions and vary in their assumptions regarding the type of price indexation adopted by firms.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): C, C1, C13, C5, C52, E, E3, E31

• Are Commodity Prices Useful Leading Indicators of Inflation?

  Staff Discussion Paper 2009-5 Calista Cheung

  Commodity prices have increased dramatically and persistently over the past several years, followed by a sharp reversal in recent months. These large and persistent movements in commodity prices raise questions about their implications for global inflation. The process of globalization has motivated much debate over whether global factors have become more important in driving the […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Inflation and prices, International topics, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E5, E52, E58

• Relative Prices, Trading Gains, and Real GDI: The Case of Canada

  Staff Discussion Paper 2009-4 Yi Zheng

  Treating imports as intermediate inputs to domestic production, the author adopts the translog function approach to model real gross domestic income (GDI) in Canada over the 1961–2006 period. She explores the role of price ratios, such as terms of trade and the real effective exchange rate, in explaining changes in real GDI, trade openness, trade […]

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Productivity JEL Code(s): C, C4, C43, D, D3, D33, F, F1, F10, O, O4, O47

• Emerging Asia's Impact on Food and Oil Prices: A Model-Based Analysis

  Staff Discussion Paper 2009-3 René Lalonde, Philipp Maier, Dirk Muir

  The authors explore the usefulness of macroeconomic models in analyzing global economic developments by examining movements in commodity prices between July 2007 and July 2008. They use the Bank of Canada's version of the Global Economy Model and investigate the longer-term outlook for commodity prices by constructing two different, globally consistent, scenarios for emerging Asia.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E30, E5, E50, E58, E6, E60

• Labour Shares and the Role of Capital and Labour Market Imperfections

  Staff Discussion Paper 2009-2 Lena Suchanek

  In continental Europe, labour shares in national income have exhibited considerable variation since 1970. Empirical and theoretical research suggests that the evolution of labour markets and labour market imperfections can, in part, explain this phenomenon.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Economic models, Financial institutions, Labour markets JEL Code(s): C, C7, C78, E, E2, E25, J, J6, J64

• Canada and the IMF: Trailblazer or Prodigal Son?

  Staff Discussion Paper 2009-1 Michael Bordo, Lawrence L. Schembri, Tamara Gomes

  Canada played an important role in the postwar establishment of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), yet it was also the first major member to challenge the orthodoxy of the BrettonWoods par value system by abandoning it in 1950 in favour of a floating, market-determined exchange rate.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Exchange rate regimes, Exchange rates, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58, F, F4, F41, F5, F55, N, N7, N72

• Inventories, Markups, and Real Rigidities in Menu Cost Models

  Staff Working Paper 2009-6 Oleksiy Kryvtsov, Virgiliu Midrigan

  Real rigidities that limit the responsiveness of real marginal cost to output are a key ingredient of sticky price models necessary to account for the dynamics of output and inflation. We argue here, in the spirit of Bils and Kahn (2000), that the behavior of marginal cost over the cycle is directly related to that of inventories, data on which is readily available.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, F, F1, F12