Staff research

• Network Analysis and Canada's Large Value Transfer System

  Staff Discussion Paper 2009-13 Lana Embree, Tom Roberts

  Analysis of the characteristics and structure of a network of financial institutions can provide insight into the complex relationships and interdependencies that exist in a payment, clearing, and settlement system (PCSS), and allow an intuitive understanding of the PCSS's efficiency, stability, and resiliency.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial stability, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): D, D8, D85, G, G1, G10

• Optimal Monetary Policy during Endogenous Housing-Market Boom-Bust Cycles

  Staff Working Paper 2009-32 Hajime Tomura

  This paper uses a small-open economy model for the Canadian economy to examine the optimal Taylor-type monetary policy rule that stabilizes output and inflation in an environment where endogenous boom-bust cycles in house prices can occur.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial stability, Inflation targets JEL Code(s): E, E4, E44, E5, E52

• Real Time Detection of Structural Breaks in GARCH Models

  Staff Working Paper 2009-31 Zhongfang He, John M. Maheu

  A sequential Monte Carlo method for estimating GARCH models subject to an unknown number of structural breaks is proposed. Particle filtering techniques allow for fast and efficient updates of posterior quantities and forecasts in real time.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, C15, C2, C22, C5, C53

• Measures of Aggregate Credit Conditions and Their Potential Use by Central Banks

  Staff Discussion Paper 2009-12 Alejandro García, Andrei Prokopiw

  Understanding the nature of credit risk has important implications for financial stability. Since authorities – notably, central banks – focus on risks that have systemic implications, it is crucial to develop ways to measure these risks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G12, G13

• Cross-border Mergers and Hollowing-out

  Staff Working Paper 2009-30 Oana Secrieru, Marianne Vigneault

  The purpose of our paper is to examine the profitability and social desirability of both domestic and foreign mergers in a location-quantity competition model, where we allow for the possibility of hollowing-out of the target firm. We refer to hollowing-out as the situation where the target firm is shut down following a merger with a domestic or foreign acquirer.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models, International topics, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D4, D43, G, G3, G34, L, L1, L13, L4, L41

• Exchange Rate Pass-through and Monetary Policy: How Strong is the Link?

  Staff Working Paper 2009-29 Stephen Murchison

  Several authors have presented reduced-form evidence suggesting that the degree of exchange rate pass-through to the consumer price index has declined in Canada since the early 1980s and is currently close to zero.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Exchange rates, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, F, F3, F31, F4, F41

• Bond Liquidity Premia

  Staff Working Paper 2009-28 Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, René Garcia

  Recent asset pricing models of limits to arbitrage emphasize the role of funding conditions faced by financial intermediaries. In the US, the repo market is the key funding market. Then, the premium of on-the-run U.S. Treasury bonds should share a common component with risk premia in other markets.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, H, H1, H12

• Risk Premium Shocks and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates

  Staff Working Paper 2009-27 Robert Amano, Malik Shukayev

  There appears to be a disconnect between the importance of the zero bound on nominal interest rates in the real-world and predictions from quantitative DSGE models. Recent economic events have reinforced the relevance of the zero bound for monetary policy whereas quantitative models suggest that the zero bound does not constrain (optimal) monetary policy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E5, E52

• Consumption, Housing Collateral, and the Canadian Business Cycle

  Staff Working Paper 2009-26 Ian Christensen, Paul Corrigan, Caterina Mendicino, Shin-Ichi Nishiyama

  Using Bayesian methods, we estimate a small open economy model in which consumers face limits to credit determined by the value of their housing stock. The purpose of this paper is to quantify the role of collateralized household debt in the Canadian business cycle.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E3, E32, E4, E44, E5, E52, R, R2, R21

• Credit Constraints and Consumer Spending

  Staff Working Paper 2009-25 Kimberly Beaton

  This paper examines the relationship between aggregate consumer spending and credit availability in the United States. The author finds that consumer spending falls (rises) in response to a reduction (increase) in credit availability.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Domestic demand and components, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E21, E27, E4, E44, E5, E51, E58