Staff research

• June 30, 2013

  Research Update - June 2013

  This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters

• Money Market Rates and Retail Interest Regulation in China: The Disconnect between Interbank and Retail Credit Conditions

  Staff Working Paper 2013-20 Nathan Porter, TengTeng Xu

  Interest rates in China are composed of a mix of both market-determined interest rates (interbank rates and bond yields), and regulated interest rates (retail lending and deposit rates), reflecting China’s gradual process of interest rate liberalization.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Development economics, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58

• Business Cycle Effects of Credit Shocks in a DSGE Model with Firm Defaults

  Staff Working Paper 2013-19 M. Hashem Pesaran, TengTeng Xu

  This paper proposes a theoretical framework to analyze the relationship between credit shocks, firm defaults and volatility, and to study the impact of credit shocks on business cycle dynamics.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credit and credit aggregates, Economic models, Financial institutions JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E4, E44, G, G2, G21

• Booms and Busts in House Prices Explained by Constraints in Housing Supply

  Staff Working Paper 2013-18 Narayan Bulusu, Jefferson Duarte, Carles Vergara-Alert

  We study the importance of supply constraints in explaining the heterogeneity in house price cycles across geographies in the United States.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Economic models JEL Code(s): R, R3, R31

• Fire-Sale FDI or Business as Usual?

  Staff Working Paper 2013-17 Ron Alquist, Rahul Mukherjee, Linda Tesar

  Using a new data set, we examine the characteristics and dynamics of cross-border mergers and acquisitions during emerging-market financial crises, that is, so-called “fire-sale FDI.” Our findings shed fresh light on whether the transactions undertaken during crisis periods differ in fundamental ways from those undertaken during more tranquil periods.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial markets, International financial markets, International topics JEL Code(s): F, F2, F21, G, G0, G01, G3, G34
• May 30, 2013

  Research Update - May 2013

  This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters

• Multivariate Tests of Mean-Variance Efficiency and Spanning with a Large Number of Assets and Time-Varying Covariances

  Staff Working Paper 2013-16 Sermin Gungor, Richard Luger

  We develop a finite-sample procedure to test for mean-variance efficiency and spanning without imposing any parametric assumptions on the distribution of model disturbances.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C15, C3, C33, G, G1, G11, G12

• What Central Bankers Need to Know about Forecasting Oil Prices

  Staff Working Paper 2013-15 Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian

  Forecasts of the quarterly real price of oil are routinely used by international organizations and central banks worldwide in assessing the global and domestic economic outlook, yet little is known about how best to generate such forecasts. Our analysis breaks new ground in several dimensions.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, E, E3, E32, Q, Q4, Q43

• Are Sunspots Learnable? An Experimental Investigation in a Simple General-Equilibrium Model

  Staff Working Paper 2013-14 Jasmina Arifovic, George Evans, Olena Kostyshyna

  We conduct experiments with human subjects in a model with a positive production externality in which productivity is a non-decreasing function of the average level of employment of other firms.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Economic models JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, G, G2, G20

• A Semiparametric Early Warning Model of Financial Stress Events

  Staff Working Paper 2013-13 Ian Christensen, Fuchun Li

  The authors use the Financial Stress Index created by the International Monetary Fund to predict the likelihood of financial stress events for five developed countries: Canada, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C12, C14, G, G0, G01, G1, G17