Staff research

• Search-for-Yield in Canadian Fixed-Income Mutual Funds and Monetary Policy

  Staff Working Paper 2014-3 Sermin Gungor, Jesus Sierra

  This paper investigates the effects of monetary policy on the risk-taking behavior of fixed-income mutual funds in Canada. We consider different measures of the stance of monetary policy and investigate active variation in mutual funds’ risk exposure in response to monetary policy.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, G, G2, G23

• It Hurts (Stock Prices) When Your Team Is About to Lose a Soccer Match

  Staff Working Paper 2014-2 Michael Ehrmann, David-Jan Jansen

  The end result of major sporting events has been shown to affect next-day stock returns through shifts in investor mood. By studying the soccer matches that led to the elimination of France and Italy from the 2010 FIFA World Cup, we show that mood-related pricing effects can materialize as sporting events unfold.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Asset pricing, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G0, G02, G1, G12, G14, G15

• Household Risk Management and Actual Mortgage Choice in the Euro Area

  Staff Working Paper 2014-1 Michael Ehrmann, Michael Ziegelmeyer

  Mortgages constitute the largest part of household debt. An essential choice when taking out a mortgage is between fixed-interest-rate mortgages (FRMs) and adjustable-interest-rate mortgages (ARMs). However, so far, no comprehensive cross‐country study has analyzed what determines household demand for mortgage types, a task that this paper takes up using new data for the euro area.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Credit and credit aggregates, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D1, D12, E, E4, E43, E5, E52, G, G2, G21

• Cash Management and Payment Choices: A Simulation Model with International Comparisons

  Staff Working Paper 2013-53 Carlos Arango, Yassine Bouhdaoui, David Bounie, Martina Eschelbach, Lola Hernández

  Despite various payment innovations, today, cash is still heavily used to pay for low-value purchases. This paper develops a simulation model to test whether standard implications of the theory on cash management and payment choices can explain the use of payment instruments by transaction size.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Bank notes, Financial services, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, E, E4, E41, E47

• Do Oil Price Increases Cause Higher Food Prices?

  Staff Working Paper 2013-52 Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian

  U.S. retail food price increases in recent years may seem large in nominal terms, but after adjusting for inflation have been quite modest even after the change in U.S. biofuel policies in 2006. In contrast, increases in the real prices of corn, soybeans, wheat and rice received by U.S. farmers have been more substantial and can be linked in part to increases in the real price of oil.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, International topics JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, Q, Q1, Q11, Q4, Q42, Q43

• Regime Switches in the Risk-Return Trade-Off

  Staff Working Paper 2013-51 Eric Ghysels, Pierre Guérin, Massimiliano Marcellino

  This paper deals with the estimation of the risk-return trade-off. We use a MIDAS model for the conditional variance and allow for possible switches in the risk-return relation through a Markov-switching specification.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): G, G1, G10, G12

• Funding Advantage and Market Discipline in the Canadian Banking Sector

  Staff Working Paper 2013-50 Mehdi Beyhaghi, Chris D'Souza, Gordon S. Roberts

  We employ a comprehensive data set and a variety of methods to provide evidence on the magnitude of large banks’ funding advantage in Canada, and on the extent to which market discipline exists across different securities issued by the Canadian banks.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Interest rates JEL Code(s): G, G0, G01, G2, G21, G28, G3, G32, G33

• A Distributional Approach to Realized Volatility

  Staff Working Paper 2013-49 Selma Chaker, Nour Meddahi

  This paper proposes new measures of the integrated variance, measures which use high-frequency bid-ask spreads and quoted depths. The traditional approach assumes that the mid-quote is a good measure of frictionless price.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, C5, C51, C58

• Volatility Forecasting when the Noise Variance Is Time-Varying

  Staff Working Paper 2013-48 Selma Chaker, Nour Meddahi

  This paper explores the volatility forecasting implications of a model in which the friction in high-frequency prices is related to the true underlying volatility. The contribution of this paper is to propose a framework under which the realized variance may improve volatility forecasting if the noise variance is related to the true return volatility.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets JEL Code(s): C, C1, C14, C5, C51, C58

• CoMargin

  Staff Working Paper 2013-47 Jorge Cruz Lopez, Jeffrey H. Harris, Christophe Hurlin, Christophe Pérignon

  We present CoMargin, a new methodology to estimate collateral requirements for central counterparties (CCPs) in derivatives markets. CoMargin depends on both the tail risk of a given market participant and its interdependence with other participants.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability JEL Code(s): G, G1, G13