Staff discussion papers
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An Overview of Indigenous Economies Within Canada
Several measures suggest economic outcomes have improved for Indigenous Peoples in recent decades. Yet, institutional settings and gaps in infrastructure and financing continue to hinder their economic progress. Recent efforts have helped address some data gaps, and new institutions are helping Indigenous communities to overcome historic barriers to growth. -
Variations in Pass-Through from Global Agricultural Commodity Prices to Domestic Food Inflation
This paper examines factors that affect the transmission of fluctuations in global agricultural commodity prices to domestic food inflation. -
A Blueprint for the Fourth Generation of Bank of Canada Projection and Policy Analysis Models
The fourth generation of Bank of Canada projection and policy analysis models seeks to improve our understanding of inflation dynamics, the supply side of the economy and the underlying risks faced by policy-makers coming from uncertainty about how the economy functions. -
Redefining Financial Inclusion for a Digital Age: Implications for a Central Bank Digital Currency
We explore quantitative and qualitative information about Canadians who face barriers to making digital payments. We also consider the implications of ongoing digitalization for modern financial inclusion and a potential central bank digital currency. -
Predicting Changes in Canadian Housing Markets with Machine Learning
We apply two machine learning algorithms to forecast monthly growth of house prices and existing homes sales in Canada. Although the algorithms can sometimes outperform a linear model, the improvement in forecast accuracy is not always statistically significant. -
Digitalization: Definition and Measurement
This paper provides an overview of digitalization and its economic implications. We assess the scope of digitalization in Canada as well as the challenges related to its measurement. -
Forecasting Risks to the Canadian Economic Outlook at a Daily Frequency
This paper quantifies tail risks in the outlooks for Canadian inflation and real GDP growth by estimating their conditional distributions at a daily frequency. We show that the tail risk probabilities derived from the conditional distributions accurately reflect realized outcomes during the sample period from 2002 to 2022. -
Digitalization: Implications for Monetary Policy
We explore the implications of digitalization for monetary policy, both in terms of how monetary policy affects the economy and in terms of data analysis and communication with the public. -
Digitalization: Productivity
We examine the relationship between digitalization and productivity, the factors that influence this relationship, and how digitalization’s effect on productivity could change firm behaviour.