Staff discussion papers
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Market Timing of Long-Term Debt Issuance
The literature on market timing of long-term debt issuance yields mixed evidence that managers can successfully time their debt-maturity issuance. The early results that are indicative of debt-maturity timing are not robust to accounting for structural breaks or to other measures of debt maturity from firm-level data that account for call and put provisions in […] -
Network Analysis and Canada's Large Value Transfer System
Analysis of the characteristics and structure of a network of financial institutions can provide insight into the complex relationships and interdependencies that exist in a payment, clearing, and settlement system (PCSS), and allow an intuitive understanding of the PCSS's efficiency, stability, and resiliency. -
Measures of Aggregate Credit Conditions and Their Potential Use by Central Banks
Understanding the nature of credit risk has important implications for financial stability. Since authorities – notably, central banks – focus on risks that have systemic implications, it is crucial to develop ways to measure these risks. -
A Financial Conditions Index for the United States
The financial crisis of 2007–09 has highlighted the importance of developments in financial conditions for real economic activity. The authors estimate the effect of current and past shocks to financial variables on U.S. GDP growth by constructing two growthbased financial conditions indexes (FCIs) that measure the contribution to quarterly (annualized) GDP growth from financial conditions. -
Strengthening IMF Surveillance: An Assessment of Recent Reforms
The authors assess the potential impact of recently approved reforms to International Monetary Fund (IMF) surveillance; namely, the "2007 Decision on Bilateral Surveillance Over Members' Policies" and the "Statement of Surveillance Priorities" (SSP). They conclude that these complementary reforms have the potential to create a comprehensive and coherent framework for IMF surveillance. If implemented properly, […] -
The Outlook for the Global Supply of Oil: Running on Faith?
The dramatic reduction in global demand, and the decline in the spot price of crude oil in the second half of last year, may have significant implications for the future supply of oil. Investments in conventional methods of extraction have been constrained, since easily accessible oil reserves are typically concentrated in countries with geopolitical uncertainty and/or state-run oil companies. -
The Role of Convenience and Risk in Consumers' Means of Payment
Using data from a 2004 survey of the Canadian public, the authors study the role of convenience and risk in consumers' use of cash relative to debit and credit cards. The authors find that consumers who perceive debit cards and credit cards to be more convenient and less risky than cash use them more frequently. -
Household Debt, Assets, and Income in Canada: A Microdata Study
The authors use microdata from the 1999 and 2005 Surveys of Financial Security to identify changes in household debt, and discuss their potential implications for monetary policy and financial stability. They document an increase in the debt-income ratio, which rose from 0.75 to 0.95, on average. -
Assessing the Implementation of the IMF's 2007 Surveillance Decision
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently adopted the "2007 Decision on Bilateral Surveillance Over Members' Policies," a landmark reform that modernizes the general principles of IMF surveillance. However, support for the reform was not unanimous, and doubts have been expressed about how the Decision would be applied in practice. The authors assess the first year […]