Publications

• June 20, 2010

  Financial System Review - June 2010

  

  Risks to the stability of both the Canadian and the global financial systems appeared to be diminishing for most of the period since the last Financial System Review (FSR), as the recovery in financial conditions and the macroeconomic environment continued to solidify.

  FSR Highlights - June 2010

  Content Type(s): Publications, Financial Stability Report
• June 9, 2010

  Crude Oil Futures: A Crystal Ball?

  Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2010 Ron Alquist, Elif Arbatli

  Based on recent research, this article discusses three ways that oil-futures prices can improve our understanding of current conditions and future prospects in the global market for crude oil. First, the response of the oil-futures curve can be used to identify the persistence of oil-price shocks and to obtain an indicator of the rate at which they will diminish. Second, the spread between the current futures price and the spot price of oil can be interpreted as an indicator of the precautionary demand for oil. Third, because oil-futures prices are volatile, forecasts of the future spot price of oil using futures prices should be supplemented with other information to improve their accuracy.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Market structure and pricing
• April 22, 2010

  Monetary Policy Report – April 2010

  

  Global economic growth has been somewhat stronger than projected, with momentum in emerging-market economies increasing noticeably.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
• April 16, 2010

  Senior Loan Officer Survey - First-Quarter 2010

  The survey results point to an overall easing in business-lending conditions during the first quarter of 2010, following a stabilization of lending conditions in the last quarter of 2009. Both the price and non-price aspects of business lending eased during the first quarter.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Senior Loan Officer Survey
• April 12, 2010

  Business Outlook Survey - Spring 2010

  On balance, firms expect sales growth to pick up over the next 12 months, and plan to increase investment spending and employment. Their investment plans are increasingly being targeted at expansion and at improving efficiency to promote future growth.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
• March 9, 2010

  Inflation Expectations and the Conduct of Monetary Policy: A Review of Recent Evidence and Experience

  Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2010 Rose Cunningham, Brigitte Desroches, Eric Santor

  This article explores the role of inflation expectations in the conduct of monetary policy. It reviews the various measures of inflation expectations used by central banks, including surveys and market-based indicators, and considers their advantages and disadvantages. It examines the critical role of inflation expectations in the framework that central banks use to understand, forecast, and control inflation. It also looks at their role as an indicator of central bank credibility. The behaviour of inflation expectations over the past two years is analyzed and policy conclusions are offered.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Inflation targets, Monetary policy implementation
• March 9, 2010

  Monetary Policy Rules in an Uncertain Environment

  Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2010 Gino Cateau, Stephen Murchison

  This article examines recent research on the influence of various forms of economic uncertainty on the performance of different classes of monetary policy rules: from simple rules to fully optimal monetary policy under commitment. The authors explain why uncertainty matters in the design of monetary policy rules and provide quantitative examples from the recent literature. They also present results for several policy rules in ToTEM, the Bank of Canada's main model for projection and analysis, including rules that respond to price level, rather than to inflation.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Monetary policy framework
• March 9, 2010

  An Uncertain Past: Data Revisions and Monetary Policy in Canada

  Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2010 Greg Tkacz

  Many important economic variables are subject to revision. This article explains how, when, and why such revisions occur; how revisions to Canadian gross domestic product (GDP) compare with GDP revisions in some other countries; which GDP components are subject to the largest revisions; and how data revisions can affect policy decisions. The author finds that revisions to Canadian GDP tend to be smaller, on average, than those of some other countries, and that among the GDP components, exports and imports are most heavily revised.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Monetary policy and uncertainty
• March 9, 2010

  Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2010

  

  Discussion of recent research into three ways that oil-futures prices can improve our understanding of current conditions and future prospects in the global market for crude oil; inflation expectations and the conduct of monetary policy: a review of recent evidence and experience; examination of the influence of various forms of economic uncertainty on the performance of different classes of monetary policy rules; how, when, and why such revisions to many important economic variables occur.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review
• March 6, 2010

  By All Accounts

  

  By All Accounts is the fifth and final book in the Bank's souvenir history series. This volume presents a portrait of the Bank from the perspective of outside observers, showing how Canadians have perceived the performance of their central bank over the decades through the eyes of those who monitor its work on the public's behalf.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Books and monographs, Souvenir books