Publications

• April 16, 2025

  Monetary Policy Report—April 2025

  

  The Canadian economy ended 2024 in a strong position. However, the trade conflict and tariffs are expected to slow growth and add to price pressures. The outlook is very uncertain because of the unpredictability of US trade policy and the magnitude of its impact on the Canadian economy.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
• April 7, 2025

  Business Outlook Survey—First Quarter of 2025

  Business conditions have deteriorated due to the trade conflict with the United States, according to results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse. Sales outlooks have softened, particularly for exporters. Firms reported having sufficient capacity, and many are delaying investment and hiring decisions amid uncertainty. Firms expect that widespread tariffs would raise costs and lead to higher selling prices. In this context, expectations for inflation are higher than they were last quarter.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey
• April 7, 2025

  Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—First Quarter of 2025

  Overall, results of the first-quarter 2025 survey show that the escalating trade conflict with the United States is damaging consumer sentiment. Confidence in the labour market has weakened significantly, and consumers have become more pessimistic about their financial health. Although consumption plans had been improving over the past several quarters, consumers now intend to spend more cautiously given the uncertainty around the trade conflict. They expect the trade conflict to lead to a higher cost of living, and this has pushed up their inflation expectations.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations
• March 26, 2025

  Summary of Governing Council deliberations: Fixed announcement date of March 12, 2025

  This is an account of the deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council leading to the monetary policy decision on March 12, 2025.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Summary of deliberations
• March 17, 2025

  Will asset managers dash for cash? A summary of the implications for central banks

  David Cimon, Jean-Philippe Dion, Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, Jabir Sandhu

  We consider ways central banks could adapt in the event of an increased risk of a dash for cash from asset managers. We explore ideas such as new facilities that ease asset managers’ ability to convert existing assets to cash or new assets with liquidity that central banks would guarantee.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Financial System Hub articles Research Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): E, E5, E58, G, G0, G00, G01, G1, G2
• March 10, 2025

  Price check: Inflation in Canada

  Sharon Kozicki, Jill Vardy, Laurence Savoie-Chabot

  Why prices change, and what it means for the economy.

  Content Type(s): Publications, The Economy, Plain and Simple Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credibility, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Inflation: costs and benefits, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission, Price stability
• February 12, 2025

  Summary of Governing Council deliberations: Fixed announcement date of January 29, 2025

  This is an account of the deliberations of the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council leading to the monetary policy decision on January 29, 2025.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Summary of deliberations
• February 10, 2025

  Market Participants Survey—Fourth Quarter of 2024

  The Market Participants Survey results are based on questionnaire responses from about 30 financial market participants.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Market Participants Survey
• January 29, 2025

  Monetary Policy Report—January 2025

  

  Economic growth has ticked up in Canada, boosted by past cuts in interest rates. In the absence of new tariffs, growth is forecast to strengthen, and inflation remains close to 2%. But the threat of new tariffs is causing major uncertainty.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Monetary Policy Report
• January 20, 2025

  Business Outlook Survey—Fourth Quarter of 2024

  Results from the Business Outlook Survey and the Business Leaders’ Pulse show that overall business conditions remain subdued, but firms are beginning to anticipate improvements in activity. Sales outlooks continue to show signs of improvement after a period of weakness. Yet many businesses still have spare capacity, which is reducing their need to expand. Firms expect cost growth, including wages, to soften further. Expectations for inflation moved slightly higher but remain within the Bank of Canada’s target range.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Business Outlook Survey