Bank of Canada Review Article

• December 8, 2005

  Towards a Made-in-Canada Monetary Policy: Closing the Circle

  Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2005-2006 John Chant

  When the Bank of Canada was first established in 1935, it had two very different models to choose from—the Bank of England and the U.S. Federal Reserve—in terms of the instruments that it might use for implementing monetary policy. Although some aspects of the Bank's early monetary policy practices, including the role of discount facilities and moral suasion, reflect the British example, other important differences shaped a distinctly Canadian approach. Chant describes what he argues are distinctively Canadian innovations: the Bank's favoured means of managing chartered bank liquidity through transfers of government deposits, the adoption of lagged reserve requirements, and the two periods in which it decided to float the Bank Rate. He also describes the series of bold initiatives that were undertaken in the 1990s with regard to simplifying clearing and settlement procedures, reducing reserve requirements, and setting the Bank's target for the overnight rate. Chant suggests that these changes have improved market efficiency, reduced risk and uncertainty, and strengthened the Bank's influence over its short-term operating target.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Monetary policy implementation
• December 2, 2005

  From Flapper to Bluestocking: What Happened to the Young Woman of Wellington Street?

  Bank of Canada Review - Winter 2005-2006 John F. Helliwell

  Helliwell traces the changes that have occurred at the Bank of Canada since the early 1960s, when he first began a long and extensive relationship with the institution and its staff. He begins with his work on the Royal Commission on Banking and Finance (the Porter Commission) and continues over the next 40 years, giving particular focus to the Bank's analytic and research activities. Although he is careful to note the benefits of alternative analytical and information-gathering techniques, such as the extensive mail and direct interview survey that he and his colleagues conducted as part of the Royal Commission, Helliwell devotes most of his attention to the Bank's econometric modelling efforts, starting with RDX1 and RDX2 in the late 1960s and early 1970s. He cites some of the internal, as well as external, obstacles that had to be overcome as the Bank's modelling efforts advanced, and how shifting trends in the economics profession have sometimes posed a challenge. Helliwell concludes that these developments helped the Bank to come of age and take its place in the front ranks of the world's evidence-based policy-research institutions.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models
• October 25, 2005

  Exports, Imports, and the Appreciation of the Canadian Dollar

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2005 Richard Dion, Michel Laurence, Yi Zheng

  An objective assessment of the effects of the appreciation of the Canadian dollar in 2003 and 2004 on exports and imports requires a detailed review of the numerous other factors which may have been at play. Dion, Laurence, and Zheng discuss the influences that have affected Canada's international trade over the past two years, including exchange rate movements, global and sector-specific shocks, constraints on the domestic supply of a few products, and competition from emerging economies, most notably, China. The analysis is complemented with econometric models developed at the Bank which provide statistically valid estimates of the contribution of the Canadian-dollar appreciation to the recent developments in exports and imports.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Exchange rates, International topics
• October 22, 2005

  How the Appreciation of the Canadian Dollar Has Affected Canadian Firms: Evidence from the Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2005 Jean Mair

  To track how firms were affected by the appreciation of the Canadian dollar in 2003 and 2004 and the steps they took in response, the Bank included supplementary questions in the quarterly Business Outlook Survey conducted by its regional offices. About half of the firms surveyed reported being adversely affected, one-quarter experienced a favourable impact, and the remainder reported no effect. Jean Mair classifies and summarizes the firms' responses, identifying the sectors that were most and least affected. Causes of the impacts are identified, as well as the actions firms took as a result of the appreciation. The article looks at these actions over time to see what they tell us about firms' adjustment process.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Balance of payments and components, Exchange rates, Recent economic and financial developments
• October 18, 2005

  What Drives Movements in Exchange Rates?

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2005 Jeannine Bailliu, Michael R. King

  Understanding what causes the exchange rate to move has been on ongoing challenge for economists. Despite extensive research, traditional macro models of exchange rate determination—with the exception of the Bank of Canada's exchange rate equation—have typically not fared well, motivating economists to explore new ways to model exchange rate movements that incorporate more complex and realistic settings. Within the context of the sharp appreciation of the Canadian dollar in 2003 and 2004, Bailliu and King review the macroeconomic models of exchange rates, as well as the micro-structure studies that highlight the importance of trading mechanisms, information asymmetry, and investor heterogeneity for explaining short-term dynamics in exchange rates. In addition to summarizing the current state of knowledge, they highlight recent advances and identify promising alternative approaches.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Economic models, Exchange rates, Financial markets
• October 5, 2005

  The Exchange Rate and Canadian Inflation Targeting

  Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2005 Christopher Ragan

  An essential element of the Bank of Canada's inflation-targeting framework is a floating exchange rate that is free to adjust in response to shocks that affect the Canadian and world economies. This floating rate plays an important role in the transmission mechanism for monetary policy. A practical question is how the Bank of Canada incorporates currency movements into the monetary policy decision-making process. Only after determining the cause and persistence of exchange rate change, and its likely net effect on aggregate demand, can the Bank decide on the appropriate policy response to keep inflation low, stable, and predictable. Ragan reviews the need to target inflation and the transmission mechanism for monetary policy, including the role of the exchange rate, before describing two types of exchange rate movements and their implications for monetary policy.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Exchange rates, Inflation targets, Monetary policy implementation
• June 25, 2005

  Changes in the Indicator Properties of Narrow Monetary Aggregates

  Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2005 Tracy Chan, Ramdane Djoudad, Jackson Loi

  Although many countries have abandoned monetary targeting in recent decades, monetary aggregates are still useful indicators of future economic activity. Past research has shown that, compared with other monetary aggregates and expressed in real terms, net M1 and gross M1 have traditionally provided superior leading information for output growth.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Monetary aggregates, Monetary and financial indicators
• June 22, 2005

  Estimating the Impact of Monetary Policy Surprises on Fixed-Income Markets

  Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2005 Jason Andreou

  In the interest of better understanding the impact of the Bank of Canada's policy actions on bond and bill yields, Andreou assesses the impact of policy-rate announcements on short and long bonds over the period 1996 to 2004. To aid the analysis, policy actions are decomposed into expected and surprise components. He also examines whether the introduction of fixed announcement dates (FADs) has affected these results, including markets' perceptions. The main finding is that unexpected policy actions by the Bank have a significant effect on market rates at the shorter end of the yield curve, with the effect dissipating as the maturity increases. A second finding, that the impact on longer-term interest rates of a surprise action by the Bank has diminished since the introduction of the FADs, suggests that the Bank's long-term policy goals are well understood and credible.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Credibility, Financial markets, Monetary policy and uncertainty
• June 18, 2005

  Recent Trends in Canadian Defined-Benefit Pension Sector Investment and Risk Management

  Bank of Canada Review - Summer 2005 Eric Tuer, Elizabeth Woodman

  Defined-benefit (DB) pension plans account for the majority of employer pension fund assets. In recent years, a number of DB plans have become underfunded, in sharp contrast to the 1990s, when many plans had large actuarial surpluses. The deterioration in the financial health of DB plans has underscored various longer-term structural issues that could make it increasingly difficult for plan sponsors to manage the financial risks of these plans. Tuer and Woodman examine how funding deficits, a greater focus on plan liabilities, a low yield environment, and changing investment beliefs are influencing investment decisions in the Canadian DB pension sector. They review the funding of DB plans, changing views on the equity-risk premium, and the shift towards liability-centred approaches to investment and how these developments are affecting pension sector investment. They also consider additional influences on the pension sector, including the limited supply of long-term bonds, the elimination of the foreign-property rule, and the movement towards fair-value accounting and a financial-economics approach to actuarial valuation, as well as their implications for financial markets.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Financial institutions, Recent economic and financial developments
• April 25, 2005

  Understanding China's Long-Run Growth Process and Its Implications for Canada

  Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2005 Michael Francis, François Painchaud, Sylvie Morin

  In the past 25 years, China has introduced numerous reforms, gradually moving from a centrally planned economy towards a socialist market economy capable of robust and sustainable economic growth. China's increasing integration into the global economy, which has been fuelled by this recent and rapid economic growth, has already begun to affect the economies of other countries and to present challenges for policy-makers, both in China and abroad. In addition to examining the determinants of China's past and current growth, the authors consider factors that are likely to support continued growth in the future and assess the implications for both the world and the Canadian economies.

  Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Development economics, International topics