Uncategorized

• October 6, 2022

  Restoring price stability for all Canadians

  Speech summary Tiff Macklem Halifax Chamber of Commerce Halifax, Nova Scotia

  Governor Tiff Macklem explains how inflation in Canada reflects more and more what’s happening with domestic demand and what the Bank is watching as it works to bring inflation back to the 2% target.

  Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Topic(s): Central bank research, Coronavirus disease (COVID-19), Domestic demand and components, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation: costs and benefits, Interest rates, Labour markets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Price stability, Recent economic and financial developments, Service sector

• Archetypes for a retail CBDC

  Staff Analytical Note 2022-14 Sriram Darbha

  A variety of technology designs could support retail central bank digital currency (CBDC) systems. We develop five archetypes of CBDC systems, outline their characteristics and discuss their trade-offs. This work serves as a framework to analyze and compare different designs, independent of vendor, platform and implementation.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Central bank research, Digital currencies and fintech JEL Code(s): E, E4, E42, E5, E51, O, O3
• October 4, 2022

  CORRA Advisory Group Meeting (October 4, 2022)

  Content Type(s): Meetings Source(s): CORRA Advisory Group

• Forecasting Banks’ Corporate Loan Losses Under Stress: A New Corporate Default Model

  Technical Report No. 122 Gabriel Bruneau, Thibaut Duprey, Ruben Hipp

  We present a new corporate default model, one of the building blocks of the Bank of Canada’s bank stress-testing infrastructure. The model is used to forecast corporate loan losses of the Canadian banking sector under stress.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Technical reports Topic(s): Economic models, Financial institutions, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, C5, C52, C53, G, G1, G17, G2, G21, G28
• September 30, 2022

  Research Update - September 2022

  This monthly newsletter features the latest research publications by Bank of Canada economists including external publications and working papers published on the Bank of Canada’s website.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Research newsletters
• September 28, 2022

  Bank of Canada response to detailed review report

  The Bank of Canada thanks the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for undertaking its thorough and thoughtful pilot review of the Bank under the new Central Bank Transparency Code (CBTC). We welcome the publication of this final review report by the IMF Mission Team and the associated recommendations.

  Content Type(s): Background materials
• September 28, 2022

  Bank of Canada welcomes IMF report following transparency review

  Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario

  The Bank of Canada today welcomed the publication by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) of its final report summarizing its pilot review of the Bank’s transparency practices.

  Content Type(s): Press, Press releases
• September 26, 2022

  CARR Meeting (September 26, 2022)

  Content Type(s): Meetings Source(s): Canadian Alternative Reference Rate Working Group

• Harnessing the benefit of state-contingent forward guidance

  Staff Analytical Note 2022-13 Vivian Chu, Yang Zhang

  A low level of the neutral rate of interest increases the likelihood that a central bank’s policy rate will reach its effective lower bound (ELB) in future economic downturns. In a low neutral rate environment, using an extended monetary policy toolkit including forward guidance helps address the ELB challenge. Using the Bank’s Terms-of-Trade Economic Model, we assess the benefits and limitations of a state-contingent forward guidance implemented within a flexible inflation targeting framework.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Central bank research, Economic models, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E2, E27, E3, E37, E4, E5, E52, E58

• Behavioral Learning Equilibria in New Keynesian Models

  Staff Working Paper 2022-42 Cars Hommes, Kostas Mavromatis, Tolga Özden, Mei Zhu

  We introduce behavioral learning equilibria (BLE) into DSGE models with boundedly rational agents using simple but optimal first order autoregressive forecasting rules. The Smets-Wouters DSGE model with BLE is estimated and fits well with inflation survey expectations. As a policy application, we show that learning requires a lower degree of interest rate smoothing.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, D, D8, D83, D84, E, E3, E6, E62