On Wednesday, January 24, 2024, the Bank of Canada will announce its decision on the target for the overnight rate. A press release will provide a brief explanation of the decision. The Bank will also publish its quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR) at the same time as the rate decision. Please note that this will take place at a new time, 09:45 (Eastern Time).
Interest rates are working to moderate spending and inflation is easing gradually, though underlying pressures are proving persistent. The Bank projects that inflation will stay around 3% through the first half of 2024, returning to target in 2025.
In the 2023 Fall Economic Statement, the Canadian government announced its intention to purchase Canada Mortgage Bonds (CMBs), beginning in 2024, up to an annual maximum of $30 billion while ensuring that the pace and volume of these purchases are appropriate for market conditions.
We develop a new analytical framework to understand the system-wide implications of climate transition risk. When applying this framework to Canadian data, we find that interconnections within the financial sector could amplify the direct effects of climate transition risk on financial entities.
We present key findings of a recent study that evaluates the credit risk that flooding poses to the residential lending activities of Canadian banks and credit unions. Results show that such risk currently appears modest but could become larger with climate change.
On Monday, January 15, 2024, the Bank of Canada will release the fourth quarter issue of the Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations.