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Understanding Monetary Policy and its Effects: Evidence from Canadian Firms Using the Business Outlook Survey
This paper shows (i) that business sentiment, as captured by survey data, matters for monetary policy decisions in Canada, and (ii) how business perspectives are affected by monetary policy shocks. Measures of business sentiment (soft data) are shown to have systematic explanatory power for monetary policy decisions over and above typical Taylor rule variables. -
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June 20, 2017
Governor Poloz unveils new Bank of Canada Museum ahead of public opening on July 1, 2017
Governor Stephen S. Poloz today welcomed special guests from the government, business and the tourism sectors for a preview of the Bank of Canada Museum, which is opening soon. -
Understanding the Cross‐Country Effects of US Technology Shocks
Business cycles are substantially correlated across countries. Yet most existing models are not able to generate substantial transmission through international trade. We show that the nature of such transmission depends fundamentally on the features determining the responsiveness of labor supply and labor demand to international relative prices. -
Detecting Scapegoat Effects in the Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Fundamentals
This paper presents a new testing method for the scapegoat model of exchange rates that aims to tighten the link between the theory on scapegoats and its empirical implementation. This new testing method consists of a number of steps. -
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What Explains Month-End Funding Pressure in Canada?
The Canadian overnight repo market persistently shows signs of latent funding pressure around month-end periods. Both the overnight repo rate and Bank of Canada liquidity provision tend to rise in these windows. This paper proposes three non-mutually exclusive hypotheses to explain this phenomenon. -
A Three‐Frequency Dynamic Factor Model for Nowcasting Canadian Provincial GDP Growth
This paper estimates a three‐frequency dynamic factor model for nowcasting Canadian provincial gross domestic product (GDP). Canadian provincial GDP is released by Statistics Canada on an annual basis only, with a significant lag (11 months). -
June 12, 2017
Canadian economy showing encouraging signs, says Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins
With the adjustment to lower oil prices largely behind us, there are encouraging signs that growth is broadening across regions and sectors, Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins told the Associates of the Asper School of Business in a speech today.