Posts
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How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables
For stationary transformations of variables, there exists a maximum horizon beyond which forecasts can provide no more information about the variable than is present in the unconditional mean. Meteorological forecasts, typically excepting only experimental or exploratory situations, are not reported beyond this horizon; by contrast, little generally accepted information about such maximum horizons is available for economic variables. -
Evaluating Forecasts from Factor Models for Canadian GDP Growth and Core Inflation
This paper evaluates the performance of static and dynamic factor models for forecasting Canadian real output growth and core inflation on a quarterly basis. We extract the common component from a large number of macroeconomic indicators, and use the estimates to compute out-of-sample forecasts under a recursive and a rolling scheme with different window sizes. -
December 6, 2008
Beads to Bytes: Canada's National Currency Collection
This volume explores money and the role it has played, and continues to play, in society, through the lens of Canada's National Currency Collection. The Collection is an extraordinary repository of coins, bank notes, and related paraphernalia from around the world. Soft cover, 124 pages (2008).
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May 11, 2017
The Digital Economy
Digital technologies—cloud computing, the Internet of Things, advanced robotics, big data analytics, artificial intelligence and machine learning, social media, 3D printing, augmented reality, virtual reality, e-money and distributed ledgers—are transforming the way busi-nesses operate. How does this transformation compare with past industrial revolutions? How are digital technologies changing production systems across industries? Agile firms that use knowledge intensively and have high levels of both organizational and human capital appear set to realize the greatest benefits from digitalization. Finally, what are the implications for productivity, labour markets, inflation and monetary policy as we transition to the digital economy? -
December 6, 2006
The Art and Design of Canadian Bank Notes
This volume offers readers a behind-the-scenes look at the demanding world of bank note design, highlighting the beauty of Canada's bank notes and celebrating the engraver's art. Soft cover, 124 pages (2006).
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May 25, 2023
CFIF welcomes the launch of the new Canadian Collateral Management Service
TMX Group Limited and Clearstream Banking S.A. announced plans to launch a Canadian Collateral Management Service (CCMS) later this year. -
Global Demand and Supply Sentiment: Evidence from Earnings Calls
This paper quantifies global demand, supply and uncertainty shocks and compares two major global recessions: the 2008–09 Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. We use two alternate approaches to decompose economic shocks: text mining techniques on earnings calls transcripts and a structural Bayesian vector autoregression model. -
November 28, 2016
From Hewers of Wood to Hewers of Code: Canada’s Expanding Service Economy
Governor Stephen S. Poloz discusses how growth in Canada’s service sector is leading to high-paying jobs and helping complete the economic recovery. -
Security of a CBDC
Security is an important element in ensuring public confidence in a central bank digital currency (CBDC). This note highlights the required security properties of a CBDC system and the challenges encountered with existing solutions, should the Bank of Canada choose to issue one.