Jonathan Lachaine - Latest

• Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2021

  Staff Analytical Note 2021-5 Thomas J. Carter, Xin Scott Chen, Ali Jaffery, Christopher Hajzler, Jonathan Lachaine, Peter Shannon, Subrata Sarker, Graeme Westwood, Beiling Yan

  We expect global potential output growth to rise to 3 percent by 2022. Relative to the last assessment in October 2020, potential output growth has been revised up across all the regions. The range of the US neutral rate remains unchanged relative to the autumn 2020 assessment.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity JEL Code(s): E, E1, E2, E4, E5, F, F0, O, O4

• Applying the Wage-Common to Canadian Provinces

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-16 Jonathan Lachaine

  As at the national level, available sources of hourly wage data for Canadian provinces sometimes send conflicting signals about wage growth. This note has two objectives. First, we develop a common measure of provincial wages (the provincial wage-common) to better capture the underlying wage pressures, reflecting the overall trend across all data sources.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C3, C38, J, J3

• Wages: Measurement and Key Drivers

  Staff Analytical Note 2018-2 Dany Brouillette, Jonathan Lachaine, Benoit Vincent

  Available sources of hourly wage data in Canada sometimes send conflicting signals about wage growth. This note thus has two objectives: first, we develop a wage measure—the wage-common—to better capture the (underlying) wage pressures reflecting the common trend across the available data sources. Second, we re-examine the relationship between wage growth and macro drivers (labour market slack and labour productivity).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C3, C38, J, J3

• Wage Growth in Canada and the United States: Factors Behind Recent Weakness

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-8 Dany Brouillette, James Ketcheson, Olena Kostyshyna, Jonathan Lachaine

  This note examines the relatively subdued pace of wage growth in Canada since the commodity price decline in 2014 and assesses whether the weakness is attributable to cyclical (e.g., labour market slack) or structural factors (e.g., resource reallocation and demographic change).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J3, J30

• A Canada-US Comparison of Labour Market Conditions

  Staff Analytical Note 2017-4 Dany Brouillette, Katerina Gribbin, Justin-Damien Guénette, James Ketcheson, Olena Kostyshyna, Jonathan Lachaine, Colin Scarffe

  In this note, we provide a brief comparison of the recent developments in the labour markets in Canada and the United States. Our analysis indicates that slack remains in the Canadian labour market, while the US labour market is close to full employment.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J22, J23