Les provinces canadiennes et la convergence : une évaluation empirique

This paper examines whether the hypothesis of economic convergence holds for the Canadian provinces. Using data on real gross domestic product per capita and on factor productivity from 1966 to 1992, the paper shows, using two different methods, that the convergence hypothesis cannot be rejected. This evidence supports the findings of other authors who have studied convergence among Canadian provinces. The first method estimates the relationship between the average growth rate in real per capita GDP and its initial level. In part because of the classic problem of regression towards the mean, it has been argued that this method is not suitable for testing the convergence hypothesis. The second method examines the trend in gaps in real per capita GDP and productivity between the richest provinces and the other provinces. It is the use of this method that distinguishes our work from previous studies, since it allows us not only to avoid some of the criticisms mentioned above, but also to examine developments in each province separately.