Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate: April 2023

Staff Analytical Note 2023-5 (English)
Salma Ahmed, Aviel Avshalumov, Tania Chaar, Eshini Ekanayake, Helen Lao, Louis Poirier, Jenna Rolland-Mills, Argyn Toktamyssov, Lin Xiang
May 2023
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We expect global potential output growth to increase from 2.5% in 2022 to 2.8% by 2026. Compared with the April 2022 staff assessment, global potential output growth is marginally slower. The current range for the US neutral rate is 2% to 3%, unchanged from the last annual assessment.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes
Topic(s): Interest rates, Monetary policy, Potential output, Productivity
JEL Code(s): E, E1, E2, E4, E5, F, F0, O, O4

DOI: https://doi.org/10.34989/san-2023-5