Bio

Konrad Zmitrowicz is a Senior Policy Advisor in the Canadian Economic Analysis Department (CEA), helping to oversee the production of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Report. Konrad has an extensive background in analyzing commodity markets as well as monitoring and forecasting the Canadian and US economies. Konrad previously served as the Director of the International Projection Division (IPD), where his focus was on producing the quarterly global macroeconomic outlook. Konrad holds an MA in economics from Queen’s University and a Bachelor of Commerce degree from the University of Manitoba.

Research Field(s): Applied Econometrics International Macroeconomics Macroeconomics Monetary and Fiscal Policy Resource and Energy Economics Term Structure Modelling Time Series

Staff analytical notes

Low for Longer? Why the Global Oil Market in 2014 Is Not Like 1986

Staff Analytical Note 2016-11 Bahattin Buyuksahin, Reinhard Ellwanger, Kun Mo, Konrad Zmitrowicz
In the second half of 2014, oil prices experienced a sharp decline, falling more than 50 per cent between June 2014 and January 2015. A cursory glance at this oil price crash suggests similarities to developments in 1986, when the price of oil declined by more than 50 per cent, initiating an episode of relatively low oil prices that lasted for more than a decade.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, Q, Q4, Q41, Q43

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Staff discussion papers

Assessing the Impact of Demand Shocks on the US Term Premium

Staff Discussion Paper 2018-7 Russell Barnett, Konrad Zmitrowicz
During and after the Great Recession of 2008–09, conventional monetary policy in the United States and many other advanced economies was constrained by the effective lower bound (ELB) on nominal interest rates. Several central banks implemented large-scale asset purchase (LSAP) programs, more commonly known as quantitative easing or QE, to provide additional monetary stimulus.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial markets, Interest rates, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy implementation, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E5, E52, E58, E6, E61, E65, G, G1, G12

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Bank publications

Bank of Canada Review articles

November 16, 2017

Factors Behind the 2014 Oil Price Decline

Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2017 Reinhard Ellwanger, Benjamin Sawatzky, Konrad Zmitrowicz
Oil prices have declined sharply over the past three years. While both supply and demand factors played a role in the large oil price decline of 2014, global supply growth seems to have been the predominant force. The most important drivers were likely the surprising growth of US shale oil production, the output decisions of the Organization of the Petro-leum Exporting Countries and the weaker-than-expected global growth that followed the 2009 global financial crisis.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): Q, Q4, Q41, Q43
November 17, 2016

Commodity Price Supercycles: What Are They and What Lies Ahead?

Bank of Canada Review - Autumn 2016 Bahattin Buyuksahin, Kun Mo, Konrad Zmitrowicz
Because commodity prices help determine Canada’s terms of trade, employment, income and, ultimately, inflation, it is important to understand what causes them to fluctuate. Since the early 1900s, there have been four commodity price supercycles—which we define as extended periods of boom and bust that can take decades to complete. Now in its downswing phase, the current supercycle started after growth in China and other emerging-market economies in the mid-1990s resulted in an unexpected demand shock. The extent of this downswing depends on numerous factors that are presently uncertain.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, International topics JEL Code(s): C, C1, Q, Q1, Q4, Q41
May 13, 2014

Beyond the Unemployment Rate: Assessing Canadian and U.S. Labour Markets Since the Great Recession

Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2014 Konrad Zmitrowicz, Mikael Khan
This article provides a broad perspective on the performance of the labour market in Canada and the United States since the Great Recession. It also presents a simple way to summarize much of this information in a single composite labour market indicator (LMI) for both countries. The LMI suggests that the unemployment rate in Canada has evolved largely in line with overall labour market conditions since the recession, but may have modestly overstated the extent of recent improvement. The U.S. unemployment rate, in contrast, appears to have substantially overstated the post-recession improvement in labour market conditions.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): International topics, Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J23

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