Bio

Monica Jain is a Principal Researcher in the Monetary Policy Analysis and Research division of the Financial Markets Department at the Bank of Canada.

Prior to joining the Financial Markets Department in April 2015, she was a Senior Economist in the Canadian Economic Analysis Department.

Monica is an applied macroeconomist whose research and policy work has focused on a range of issues related to inflation, inflation expectations and central bank communications.

Monica obtained an MA in Economics from the University of British Columbia and a PhD in Economics from Queen’s University.

Research Field(s): Applied Econometrics Central Bank Communication Forecasting

Staff discussion papers

Summaries of Central Bank Policy Deliberations: A Canadian Context

Staff Discussion Paper 2023-2 Monica Jain, Walter Muiruri, Jonathan Witmer, Sharon Kozicki, Jeremy Harrison
This paper provides the context, rationale and key considerations that informed the Bank of Canada’s decision to publish a summary of monetary policy deliberations. It includes an analysis of how other central banks disclose minutes and summaries of their monetary policy deliberations.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Monetary policy communications JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E5, E58

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Staff working papers

How Do People View Price and Wage Inflation?

Staff Working Paper 2022-34 Monica Jain, Olena Kostyshyna, Xu Zhang
This paper examines household-level data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations (CSCE) to understand households’ expectations about price and wage inflation, how those expectations link to views about labour market conditions and the subsequent impact on households’ outlook for real spending growth.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Inflation and prices, Monetary policy communications JEL Code(s): C, C8, C83, D, D8, D84, E, E2, E21, E24, E3, E31

Sluggish Forecasts

Staff Working Paper 2018-39 Monica Jain
Given the influence that agents’ expectations have on key macroeconomic variables, it is surprising that very few papers have tried to extrapolate agents’ “true” expectations directly from the data. This paper presents one such approach, starting with the hypothesis that there is sluggishness in inflation and real GDP growth forecasts.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E37

How Do Central Bank Projections and Forward Guidance Influence Private-Sector Forecasts?

Staff Working Paper 2018-2 Monica Jain, Christopher S. Sutherland
We construct a 23-country panel data set to consider the effect of central bank projections and forward guidance on private-sector forecast disagreement. We find that central bank projections and forward guidance matter mainly for private-sector forecast disagreement surrounding upcoming policy rate decisions and matter less for private-sector macroeconomic forecasts.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Central bank research, Inflation targets, Monetary policy, Monetary policy communications, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): D, D8, D83, E, E3, E37, E5, E52, E58

Perceived Inflation Persistence

Staff Working Paper 2013-43 Monica Jain
The Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) has had vast influence on research related to better understanding expectation formation and the behaviour of macroeconomic agents. Inflation expectations, in particular, have received a great deal of attention, since they play a crucial role in determining real interest rates, the expectations-augmented Phillips curve and monetary policy.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E37

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Journal publications

Journal articles