Robert Fay

Staff analytical notes

The Global Benefits of Low Oil Prices: More Than Meets the Eye

Staff Analytical Note 2016-13 Robert Fay, Justin-Damien Guénette, Louis Morel
Between mid-2014 and early 2016, oil prices fell by roughly 65 per cent. This note documents the channels through which this oil price decline is expected to affect the global economy. One important and immediate channel is through higher expenditures, especially in net oil-importing countries.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, International topics, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E3, E32, E37, F, F0, F01, Q, Q4, Q43

The US Labour Market: How Much Slack Remains?

Staff Analytical Note 2016-9 Robert Fay, James Ketcheson
Despite the US unemployment rate being close to estimates of the non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU), measures of underemployment remain elevated, which could be an indication of remaining labour market slack. The shares of involuntary part-time workers and long-term unemployment are high relative to the current stage of the business cycle, suggesting available labour inputs are being underutilized.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Topic(s): International topics, Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): E, E2, E24, J, J2, J21, J23

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Staff discussion papers

What Is Behind the Weakness in Global Investment?

Staff Discussion Paper 2016-5 Maxime Leboeuf, Robert Fay
The recovery in private business investment globally remains extremely weak more than seven years after the financial crisis. This paper contributes to the ongoing policy debate on the factors behind this weakness by analyzing the role of growth prospects and uncertainty in explaining developments in non-residential private business investment in large advanced economies since the crisis.
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Domestic demand and components, Economic models, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C2, C23, C3, C33, D, D2, D24, D8, D80, D84, E, E2, E22, F, F0, F01, G, G3, G31

Understanding Productivity: A Review of Recent Technical Research

Staff Discussion Paper 2008-3 Richard Dion, Robert Fay
The authors provide an extensive review of the rapidly expanding research on productivity, both at the macro and micro levels. They focus primarily on papers written about Canada, but also draw on selected studies from other countries, especially the United States, where such work sheds important light on particular aspects of productivity growth. The authors […]
Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Productivity JEL Code(s): D, D2, D24, O, O3, O31, O4, O40, O47

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Bank publications

Bank of Canada Review articles

May 11, 2017

Why Is Global Business Investment So Weak? Some Insights from Advanced Economies

Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2017 Robert Fay, Justin-Damien Guénette, Martin Leduc, Louis Morel
Various drivers of business investment can be used to explain the underwhelming performance of investment in advanced economies since the global financial crisis, particularly since 2014. The slow growth in aggregate demand cannot by itself explain the full extent of the recent weakness in investment, which appears to be linked primarily to the collapse of global commodity prices and a rise in economic uncertainty. Looking ahead, business investment growth is likely to remain slower than in the pre-crisis period, largely because of structural factors such as population aging.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Domestic demand and components, Economic models, International topics, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, D, D2, D24, D8, D80, E, E2, E22, F, F0, F01, G, G3, G31
May 16, 2016

Monetary Policy Frameworks: Recent International Developments

Bank of Canada Review - Spring 2016 Robert Fay, Kristina Hess
Inflation-targeting frameworks have remained relatively stable over the past few years despite significant challenges, including prolonged low inflation, a large negative commodity price shock and rising financial stability concerns in some economies. The tools used by central banks have, however, evolved substantially. This article provides a survey of the developments in the inflation-targeting frameworks of 10 central banks in advanced economies that correspond to the three research areas of the Bank of Canada’s 2016 renewal: the level of the inflation target, the measurement of core inflation and financial stability considerations in the formulation of monetary policy.
Content Type(s): Publications, Bank of Canada Review articles Topic(s): Inflation targets, International topics, Monetary policy framework JEL Code(s): E, E5, E52, E58

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