FSRC - Financial System Research Center

• Combining Canadian Interest-Rate Forecasts

  Staff Working Paper 2008-34 David Bolder, Yuliya Romanyuk

  Model risk is a constant danger for financial economists using interest-rate forecasts for the purposes of monetary policy analysis, portfolio allocations, or risk-management decisions. Use of multiple models does not necessarily solve the problem as it greatly increases the work required and still leaves the question "which model forecast should one use?"

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Econometric and statistical methods, Interest rates JEL Code(s): C, C1, C11, E, E4, E43, E47

• The Impact of Sovereign Wealth Funds on International Financial Stability

  Staff Discussion Paper 2008-14 Tamara Gomes

  Over the recent period, many emerging-market economies and commodity-exporting nations have experienced unprecedented growth and accumulated substantial amounts of foreign exchange reserves. The management of these foreign reserves has led to the emergence of important financial actors: sovereign wealth funds (SWFs).

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial stability, Recent economic and financial developments JEL Code(s): F, F2, F21, F3, F31, F32, G, G1, G15

• What To Do about Bilateral Credit Limits in the LVTS When a Closure Is Anticipated: Risk versus Liquidity Sharing among LVTS Participants

  Staff Discussion Paper 2008-13 Sean O'Connor, Greg Caldwell

  The authors examine the effect of a trade-off between shared credit risk and liquidity efficiency, among participants in Tranche 2 of the Large Value Transfer System (LVTS T2), on their decisions to leave open, or close, their bilateral credit limits (BCLs) to a participant at risk of imminent closure.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Financial services, Payment clearing and settlement systems JEL Code(s): G, G2, G21, L, L1, L13, L14

• Market Structure and the Diffusion of E-Commerce: Evidence from the Retail Banking Industry

  Staff Working Paper 2008-32 Jason Allen, Robert Clark, Jean-François Houde

  This paper studies the role that market structure plays in affecting the diffusion of electronic banking. Electronic banking (and electronic commerce more generally) reduces the cost of performing many types of transactions for firms.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial institutions, Market structure and pricing JEL Code(s): D, D1, D14, D4, G, G2, G21, L, L1

• Non-Linearities, Model Uncertainty, and Macro Stress Testing

  Staff Working Paper 2008-30 Miroslav Misina, David Tessier

  A distinguishing feature of macro stress testing exercises is the use of macroeconomic models in scenario design and implementation. It is widely agreed that scenarios should be based on "rare but plausible" events that have either resulted in vulnerabilities in the past or could do so in the future.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Financial stability JEL Code(s): C, C1, C15, G, G2, G21, G3, G33

• Macroeconomic Determinants of the Term Structure of Corporate Spreads

  Staff Working Paper 2008-29 Jun Yang

  We investigate the macroeconomic determinants of corporate spreads using a no-arbitrage technique. Structural shocks are identified by a New-Keynesian model. Treasury bonds are priced in an affine model with time-varying risk premia.

  Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Topic(s): Debt management, Financial markets, Interest rates JEL Code(s): E, E4, E43, E44, G, G1, G12